Can upsets shake up the final weekend?
The final weekend of the college football season always has drama surrounding the playoff race. This year is no exception, even if there seems to be less likelihood for upsets. While Alabama and Ohio State are overwhelming favorites to confirm their places in the field, there are possible avenues for respective opponents Florida and Northwestern to find a way to pull off a surprise.
A look at the five biggest questions for Week 16 of the season:
Does Florida have a chance against Alabama?
The oddsmakers say no: Alabama is favored by more than two touchdowns in Saturday night’s Southeastern Conference championship game. But any team with Florida’s quarterback, skill talent and offensive explosiveness has a shot against Alabama, even if the Crimson Tide’s defense has played inspired football since a shootout win against Mississippi early this season. While last week’s loss to LSU dealt a blow to the Gators’ overall credibility, this offense still ranks fifth nationally in yards per play (7.4), eighth in yards per game (513.5) and 12th in scoring (41.2 points per game). The problem? Alabama ranks second, fifth and third in those same categories. In other words, Florida has a shot. But it would qualify as a major upset if the Gators knock off the Tide.
What is different about the Notre Dame-Clemson rematch?
One thing that immediately stands out is the return of Trevor Lawrence, who missed Notre Dame’s 47-40 overtime win in November due to COVID-19. Could Lawrence make the difference? Certainly. But don’t forget that freshman phenom D.J. Uiagalelei replaced Lawrence in that loss and threw for 439 yards, the most ever allowed by the Irish in a game. The biggest developments in the weeks since have been Notre Dame’s increased production on both sides and the continued struggles of Clemson’s offensive line, which has not made any noticeable gains during the regular season and could again be a major issue against Notre Dame’s attacking defense. If the line is unable to move the line of scrimmage and open lanes for star running back Travis Etienne, Clemson’s offense might remain too one-dimensional to take down the Irish.
Can Northwestern pose problems for Ohio State?
Sure. This defense is one of the best in recent program history: Northwestern ranks fifth in the country in yards allowed per play (4.5) and has held all but one of its seven opponents to under 370 yards. The Wildcats have also forced 16 turnovers, exceeding last year’s total (14) across a 12-game season. The most obvious key to victory is to muddy the waters against Ohio State’s fantastic offense, force the Buckeyes to make long conversions and win the turnover battle by two or more. All this is doable. But you have to wonder if Northwestern’s offense can carry its end of the bargain after an uneven season that had high spots (the opener against Maryland and last week against Illinois) but plenty of low notes (pretty much everything else.)
Can Iowa State beat Oklahoma again?
The Cyclones caught the Sooners at the right time earlier this season. Oklahoma was playing its first road game with freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler and missing two key players (running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins). Rattler’s maturity and the impact of Stevenson and Perkins have been critical to the Sooners running off six consecutive wins since the loss in Ames. However, Iowa State is also a very different team. On a five-game winning streak, the Cyclones, who are No. 6 in the playoff ranking, pose some key issues for Oklahoma. They stop the run, which should put a lot of pressure on Rattler to make plays. He has been inconsistent when forced to shoulder the offense without a running threat. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy can take advantage of the Sooners’ secondary, which is the weak link of the defense. Don’t be surprised if the Cyclones pull another upset and put themselves in position to maybe make the final four.
Can Louisiana-Lafayette derail Coastal Carolina?
The Chanticleers are on the verge of being in the New Year’s Six without ever having a previous bowl appearance. That’s how historic their season has been. Among the wins have been defeats of Brigham Young and the Ragin’ Cajuns – the only losses for both those teams. Louisiana-Lafayette gets an opportunity to reverse things. It won’t be easy. Coastal’s success on offense is almost equally balanced between pass and run, making it difficult to defend. The experience of playing earlier this season will help the Cajuns. It was a close game decided by a late field goal, so a few plays difference could be enough to change the result this time.