Trump trial in Senate risky for Democrats
WASHINGTON – The historic impeachment of President Donald Trump for his role in last week’s violence at the U.S. Capitol added a gargantuan dose of uncertainty Wednesday to Presidentelect Joe Biden’s first days in office as leaders of both political parties began to game out how – and when – to hold a Senate trial.
With days remaining until Biden is inaugurated and Democrats take control of the Senate, attention shifted quickly to questions over the timing of an impeachment trial – a rare spectacle that promises to consume American politics for weeks and challenge assumptions about how Washington will transition out of the Trump era.
“There will be an impeachment trial in the United States Senate; there will be a vote on convicting the president for high crimes and misdemeanors; and if
the president is convicted, there will be a vote on barring him from running again,” said Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.
Schumer, who will presumably become majority leader this month, did not specify when that trial will take place.
House Democrats galloped toward the second impeachment of Trump after the president whipped up a crowd outside the White House with claims of a stolen election. A mob went on to storm the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, interrupting the count of Electoral College votes and creating a day of chaos that left five dead.
But there were signs neither side was in as much of a rush to begin the trial, a messier process that could bar Trump from seeking the presidency again. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., declined to say when she would send the impeachment article to the Senate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the chamber would not return to Washington until Jan. 19. Biden is set to be sworn in Jan. 20.
“It’s a risky political move,” said Michael Gerhardt, a University of North Carolina law professor who wrote a book on impeachment in 2018.
Senate Democrats must decide if they want to eat up time in Biden’s first weeks with a trial that could slow his agenda to address the coronavirus pandemic, stall Cabinet nominations he’ll want to be confirmed quickly and keep the focus on a divisive ex-president even as he tries to cast himself as a uniting force. Republicans, meanwhile, must decide if this is the moment to make a clean break with Trump.
Biden, who has not taken a position on impeachment, has sought to walk a middle line, suggesting the Senate could “bifurcate” its schedule to spend part of the day on his nominees and part of the day on the potentially wrenching impeachment trial.
Gerhardt and others predicted a trial ultimately would not begin until after Democrats take control of the chamber, possibly long after. Rep. Jim Clyburn, DS.C., the third-ranking House Democrat, suggested last week that leaders could wait until 100 days after Biden moved into the White House to send the impeachment article to the Senate.
Pelosi waited nearly a month after the House impeached Trump in late 2019 to send the articles to the other chamber. The Senate, which is required to begin the trial as soon as the articles are received, took about three weeks to consider the charges, which stemmed from allegations Trump improperly sought Ukraine’s help to boost his reelection chances. The Senate acquitted Trump in early February.
On Wednesday, Pelosi offered no indication about how long she would wait this time.
“We’re seeing members of Congress really struggle,” Gerhardt said. “They know they’re going to be politically responsible for their decision.”
Trump will leave office Jan. 20, but the push to impeach him was in part about severing his longstanding grip on the Republican Party. White House aides long hinted that Trump could continue his political rallies, influence which candidates and policies gained traction with the GOP base, and possibly run for president again in 2024.
Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, said any Republican who spends time pondering what it may mean for midterm elections in 2022 or the presidential race in 2024 is missing the point. “I think the lesson from the last couple of elections – including Trump’s – is voters want politicians who are less calculating and more principled. They’re sick of politics as usual,” he said.
The president offered little reaction to the proceedings in the days leading up to the House vote. Deprived of Twitter and other social media, Trump urged his supporters in a statement Wednesday to take part in “NO violence” and “NO lawbreaking.”
Kevin Madden, former adviser to Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said that although the GOP is fracturing in real time, the divisions existed long before the attack on the Capitol: those who are devoted to defending the rule of law and democratic institutions and those who are devoted to the president.
“If he’s impeached and then removed, that means he’s an afterthought as far as 2024,” he said.
But Republicans are unlikely to be unified in the waning days of Trump’s presidency, Conant said. “There are a lot of Republicans in Congress who remain loyal to Trump. Clearly there’s a disagreement on strategy, but there’s an even bigger disagreement on principles.”
McConnell reportedly told aides earlier this week that he’s open to Trump’s impeachment and “that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach, believing it would make it easier to purge him from the party,” according to a New York Times report.
The Kentucky Republican said in a statement Wednesday that he’s still weighing whether to vote to impeach Trump but said “there is simply no chance that a fair or serious trial” could take place before Biden’s inauguration.
“For McConnell, his best course of action is to diminish Donald Trump’s hold on the party going forward,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist and vocal critic of the president. “I think his signal yesterday – as Liz Cheney did – is to encourage as many Republicans to vote for impeachment as possible.”