Extremists staying home?
Far-right groups are telling followers to stay away from protests.
Authorities are arresting more people involved in last week’s siege of the U.S. Capitol. Online gathering spaces for the far-right have been shuttered or are sputtering under a flood of new users. And thousands of National Guard troops have been brought in to protect the nation’s capital.
In the midst of it all, leaders of farright, extremist factions are telling their followers to stay away from protests planned across the country this weekend and on Inauguration Day.
“We’re going to take a chill pill,” Enrique Tarrio, chairman of the far-right street gang the Proud Boys, said in an interview. “I feel like this part of the battle is over.”
Other prominent figures on the far right, who helped bring huge crowds to the capital on Jan. 6, echoed his message to stay away.
“Of course this should go without saying but steer clear of the Capital on January 20th,” podcaster and far-right provocateur Nicholas Fuentes wrote on Twitter. “They are deploying 25,000 soldiers for the inauguration and the state of emergency will still be in effect. I’m not going and I won’t be returning to DC for a long, long time!”
Experts agree that, unlike the days before the Jan. 6 insurrection, the online ecosystem used by President Donald Trump’s most outspoken supporters has been muted, with few signs that large crowds will gather in Washington or state capitals for protests Sunday and Wednesday, Inauguration Day.
But, they cautioned, that doesn’t mean there’s no chance of violence.
Federal authorities believe the aggressive pursuit of suspects in the Capitol assault and the early show of force to secure the Inauguration may have prompted some extremists to reconsider returning to Washington to engage in violence, an official familiar with the investigation said Thursday.
The official, who is not authorized to comment publicly, said some suspects who had planned to return have retained lawyers and turned themselves in rather than risk joining demonstrations in Washington and elsewhere.
The official cautioned, however, that the threat level remains high because many extremists are not part of organized groups, such as the Proud Boys, with designated leaders.
The FBI warns that protests are planned in all 50 states, and experts worry that state capitols could prove softer targets for domestic terrorists, armed paramilitary groups or large crowds of angry Trump supporters.
“Nothing’s going to happen in D.C., but I worry about state capitals,” said Daryl Johnson, a security consultant and former senior analyst for domestic terrorism at the Department of Homeland Security. “They should be beefing up security.”
Security in Washington, D.C., was ramped up immediately after the insurrection. It has reached extraordinary levels, with thousands of National Guard troops pledged to protect federal buildings and public spaces. The message to prospective protesters is clear: Unapproved mass gatherings and violence will not be tolerated. And it appears to be resonating among the far right.
“Even before Jan. 6, I always said it was stupid to rally in D.C.,” Tarrio said. “You can’t open carry (a firearm) in D.C., so the whole idea of a ‘Million Militia March’ was stupid from the beginning.”
He referred to a rallying cry that briefly flared up in the days after the insurrection, when people on far-right social media posted about holding a “Million Militia March,” or “#MMM,” this Sunday.
The attack on the Capitol, coupled with digital intelligence, also has exposed many agitators to law enforcement, said Jonathan Wackrow, chief operating officer of consulting and advisory firm Teneo Risk and a former Secret Service agent. He said efforts to secure Washington shouldn’t create a false sense of security. The amount of publicly accessible activity by extremists is a fraction of what’s happening in the dark corners of the internet.
“One single person with the right means, opportunity and intent can significantly change history. But that will give the extremists the win that they need,” Wackrow said.