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CANTON, Ohio – JC Tretter gets this politely annoyed look about the “near impossibility of the Browns beating Kansas City.”
“It just doesn’t have any meaning on what’s going to happen,” the ironman center said Monday after a win at Pittsburgh that wasn’t supposed to happen. “It’s projections and predictions, and it just doesn’t have an impact on us. We’re not not caught up at all in anything people say about what we can and can’t do.”
It started last summer for reasons Browns fans know so well. Winning out of the gate didn’t seem probable. Somehow, the team found itself at 4-1.
The bubble burst with a 38-7 loss at Pittsburgh, a harrowing win at Cincinnati, and a 16-6 loss to Las Vegas. Then the Browns somehow went on another 4-1 hot streak. Injuries and COVID-19 crept into a loss to the Jets and a shaky win over Pittsburgh replacements.
There was no way the Browns could win a playoff road game against the rested Steelers. Somehow ...
Sunday’s game at the top-seeded Chiefs seems the ultimate season challenge for the Browns.
However daunting, here are 10 reasons to imagine “somehow” turning into Cleveland winning at Kansas City.
The Chiefs didn’t limp across the regular-season finish line, but it has been a while since they dominated an opponent. Their regular-season finale, a loss to the Chargers, can be disregarded since Patrick Mahomes was rested while Chad Henne made his first start since 2014. Game 15 warrants scrutiny.
Playing at home against an Atlanta team that wound up 4-12, the Chiefs trailed 14-10 late in the fourth quarter. Facing a 3rd-and-10 from his 25, Mahomes converted and led the Chiefs to a go-ahead TD. Even then, Kansas City’s defense allowed Atlanta to drive to a field goal try that could have created overtime. Younghoe Koo missed from 39 yards.
Kansas City’s offensive line is weaker than it has been through much of Mahomes’ brilliant run. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who made first- or second-team All-Pro four times after jumping from the Browns in 2016, has wrestled with a back issue and is not expected to play Sunday.
Baker Mayfield won’t get intimidated if Mahomes scorches the skies. In a 2016 college game, Mahomes squeezed 739 yards out of 88 throws for Texas Tech. Mayfield countered with 545 yards on 36 throws in a 66-59 Oklahoma win. Mayfield’s first six TD passes that day all covered 23 yards or more.
Mahomes doesn’t always inflict severe pain on a defense. In October, the Chiefs were at home with a 13-10 lead on New England midway through the fourth quarter. They managed a modest 323 yards against a team that finished 7-9. In a home win over Denver, the Chiefs trailed 16-12 late in the third.
If at some point Sunday the Browns wish to control the clock with the run game, they can look to Kansas City’s low-score game against the Broncos. Denver ran 33 times and netted 179 rushing yards. Melvin Gordon popped a run of 65 yards.
The Browns fell to the Chiefs in 2018 largely because they couldn’t stop Kareem Hunt. The game’s first points came on a 50-yard catch and run by Hunt. Kansas City’s next series began with a 25-yard run by Hunt, leading to another TD. A Nick Chubb TD cut a Browns deficit to 14-9. They then had a chance to hold the Chiefs to a field goal. On third down, Hunt ran 9 yards to the 1. He scored on the next play. Mayfield took the Browns on a TD drive overlapping the third and fourth quarters. The Chiefs’ next series started with a 10-yard run by Hunt that led to a field goal. Defending Hunt is Kansas City’s problem now that he is Chubb’s teammate.
The Chiefs are susceptible to big plays in their backyard. In their home loss to the Raiders, they allowed a 72yard TD pass to Henry Ruggs III, a 59yard yard TD pass to Nelson Agholor, and a 43-yard run by Devontae Booker. In their home win over Tampa Bay, Ronald Jones II hit them with a 34-yard run and a 37-yard catch. Three other pass plays covered more than 30 yards. In their home win over Carolina, four Panthers delivered receptions covering more than 20 yards apiece.
Defending Super Bowl champs tend to experience at least a slight hangover. Denver won Super Bowl 50 and missed the playoffs the next year. Philadelphia won Super Bowl 52 and followed up with a 13-3 record but lost a playoff opener. The Patriots won Super Bowl 53 and dropped a wild-card game at home to the Titans. Andy Reid went to one Super Bowl as head coach of the Eagles. Philadelphia went 6-10 the next year.
Certain offenses give the Chiefs matchup problems. Las Vegas is Exhibit A. Jon Gruden’s Raiders won 40-32 at Kansas City and lost a 35-31 shootout in Vegas. The Chiefs had trouble slowing down Derek Carr’s quick passes. Playing behind a patchwork line, Mayfield needed a quick-pass approach more than ever at Pittsburgh. He made one important throw after another.
Cleveland’s head coach is a student of Andy Reid. “Growing up an Eagles fan, I cheered for a bunch of his teams,” Kevin Stefanski said. He marvels at Reid continually adapting to changes in the pro game. Now Reid is up against a coach who has studied him thoroughly and has brought a stunning change to the way Cleveland plays football.