10 NCAA Tournament bubble teams sweating the most

Last month of regular season is crucial for fringe teams with borderline credentials.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee might have provided fans with a snapshot of the projected Top 16 seeds last weekend, but there was no overview of the bubble teams that are in hot water a month out from Selection Sunday, March 14. One résumé-staining loss can be a deal breaker for some teams, while for others a Quadrant 1 (top-25 home, top-75 away) victory can make all the difference. Here’s a look at which teams are sweating the most.

North Carolina: A projected No. 10 seed in USA TODAY Sports’ latest bracketology, the Tar Heels (12-7, 7-5) have a NET score of 57 with no bad losses. What’s glaringly missing is more Quadrant 1 wins. There is a road win over fellow bubble team Duke serving as the marquee victory. North Carolina will have Q1 chances in three of its next four Atlantic Coast Conference games against Virginia Tech, Louisville and Florida State.

Drake: A projected No. 10 seed, the Bulldogs (20-2, 11-2) saved their at-large bid hopes by beating Loyola-Chicago by one point Sunday, one day after losing by 27 to the Ramblers in Missouri Valley play. Drake, unbeaten just a few weeks ago, might have lost its mantle in the MVC but that one major victory speaks volumes because the Ramblers have a top-10 NET score.

St. Bonaventure: Projected as a No. 11 seed, the Bonnies (10-3, 8-3) have a difficult path while playing in the Atlantic 10 – the ninth toughest conference in the country according to NET rankings. There’s very little chance to add Quadrant 1 victories – which is what Saint Bonaventure is missing most. Still, there are no bad losses. A top-15 nonconference strength of schedule and 41 NET score bolsters this team’s profile.

St. Louis: Another A-10 team and currently projected No. 12 seed, the Billikens (10-3, 3-2) just need to start piling up wins after missing a significant portion of the season due to COVID-19. Road games against Dayton and league leader Virginia Commonwealth are opportunities to improve their standing.

The Hoosiers (11-9, 6-7) largely benefit from playing in the Big Ten, the country’s toughest conference in the NET rankings. A NET score of 50 and non-conference strength of schedule of 124 weigh this team down, but adding two Q1 wins would inch coach Archie Miller’s team further from its projected No. 12 seed to a possible play-in game.

Utah State: A projected No. 12 seed, the Aggies (14-5, 11-2) are among several bubble teams hailing from the Mountain West (San Diego State and Colorado State being the others). Utah State’s profile is in trouble the most despite being out front in the MWC race. Two Quadrant 3 losses and a strength of schedule of 157 are hurting this team big time.

Seton Hall: A projected No. 12 seed in a play-in game, the Pirates (12-8, 9-5) have a top-30 strength of schedule, NET score of 45 and three Quadrant 1 victories. But there just aren’t enough wins on this Big East team’s profile.

Connecticut: Another Big East bubble team, the Huskies (9-5, 6-5) are one of the first four teams on the outside looking in and the reason for that is there just aren’t enough wins. Beating fellow Big East bubble team Xavier in its last game was a step in the right direction.

Stanford: A currently projected first four out team, Stanford (13-8, 9-6) is trying to stay away from the bubble alongside fellow Pac-12 foes Oregon and Colorado. The reason the Cardinal are in worse shape than those teams is a lack of marquee wins. The Pac-12 is sixth in the NET conference rankings among the seven power leagues.

Duke: The Blue Devils (8-8, 6-6) aren’t even near the first four outside of the bubble and their NCAA Tournament chances are hanging in the balance now because there isn’t enough on their profile to impress the committee for a team with a .500 record. There’s room to enhance the portfolio in the ACC but Duke needs to start piling up victories because a loss to Miami is the deal breaker right now. News that star freshman Jalen Johnson is sitting out the rest of 2020-21 is not ideal.