INSIDE: NCAA BRACKET, SEEDINGS
A look at seedings, plus we break down each region and give our outlooks for all 68 college teams in Find more, including bracket tips, at ncaab.usatoday.com.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee was bound to have a difficult task in seeding men’s basketball teams following a scattered season of postponements, pauses and cancellations due to COVID-19 protocols.
There’s always strong debate about which teams make the field and which are left out, and this year’s biggest surprise was the committee putting Wichita State into the field of 68 while snubbing Louisville.
Besides the omissions of bubble teams, the committee still botched some seeding lines and matchups in this year’s bracket.
Here are the six biggest mistakes made by the committee – with three teams under-seeded and three teams over-seeded.
Under-seeded
1. Missouri as a No. 9 seed. The Tigers (16-9, 8-8 Southeastern) were one of the top 16 seeds as a No. 4 seed in the committee’s bracket reveal a month ago. Did they drop five spots in one month from going 3-4 in that span or is the committee suggesting it was wrong in February? Either way it’s a botched seed. Missouri’s overall profile included seven Quadrant 1 victories, including wins over Illinois and Alabama. The only rationale would be a heavy reliance on a 47 NET score. Coach Cuonzo Martin’s team was good enough to be a No. 6 seed. No. 7 seed at worst. This is one of the worst seeding mistakes in the past decade.
2. Oklahoma as a No. 8 seed. During the bracket reveal a month ago, the Sooners (15-10, 9-8 Big 12) were a No. 3 seed. So, again, did this team really plummet five seeds? Even with a 3-5 stance in that time frame, this is at least one seed off.
3. Oklahoma State as a No. 4 seed. Based on how well Cade Cunningham and the Cowboys (20-8, 11-7) played down the last stretch of the season, including an upset of Baylor in the Big 12 tournament, OSU was worthy of a No. 3 seed and even had credentials on par for a No. 2 seed.
Over-seeded
1. San Diego State as a No. 6 seed. The committee sent a mixed message with how it assessed Mountain West Conference teams with strikingly similar profiles. The regular-season and tournament champion Aztecs (22-4, 14-3) have just one Quadrant 1 win on their portfolio.
2. West Virginia as a No. 3 seed. The Mountaineers (18-9, 11-6) took two losses to Oklahoma State (a botched No. 4 seed) at the end of the season, including one without OSU’s best player, Cade Cunningham. This seed is as if the committee never saw those games.
3. Colorado as a No. 5 seed. The Buf
faloes (22-8, 14-6), who fell to bid thief Oregon State in the Pac-12 tournament title game, seemed to have their top-15 NET score overemphasized. Because outside of that there’s just three Quadrant 1 wins here and there’s three Quadrant 3 losses, including one to to Pac-12 doormat California, that should’ve been more costly.
(Seeding data and insight compiled from USA TODAY Sports bracketologist Shelby Mast, who made 67 of 68 picks correct in this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket projection.)
West region analysis
Best first-round matchup: Styles make the fight in these first-round games, and it will be an interesting contrast between Oregon and VCU to see which team can get the game played on their terms. The Ducks have a top-20 offense, according to the Pomeroy efficiency rankings, while VCU is among the top 10 in the country at generating steals (9.4 per game) and protecting the rim (5.4 blocks per game). Oregon has been a low turnover team, turning the ball over just 11.4 times per game, while making 53% of their two-pointers and 38% of their threes, both of which are very good numbers. It will be interesting to see if the Rams’ disruptive style can make Oregon uncomfortable enough to give up the ball. While VCU runs everything through sophomore guard Nah’Shon Hyland (19.4 ppg), who likes to get to the rim and draw fouls, Oregon plays a lot of interchangeable wings in the 6-foot-6 range, five of whom averaged double-digits in scoring this season.
Potential upset: Though Creighton is a top-20 team in several of the metrics, some underlying weaknesses might have been exposed in the Big East tournament final when the Bluejays got blitzed by Georgetown 73-48. Nobody wants to go into the NCAA Tournament off those kind of vibes, particularly when the first opponent is a very capable UC-Santa Barbara team that has won 18 of its last 19 games. Creighton has also been dealing with off-court drama lately, as coach Greg McDermott was suspended for a game for an insensitive racial comment after a loss on Feb. 27. The Bluejays are 3-2 since that incident came to light and haven’t quite looked the same. UC-Santa Barbara has some skilled frontcourt players who will present some problems, and their guards defend well on the 3-point line, where opponents shot 33.3% on just 17.3 attempts. If Creighton’s chemistry is still off, this will be a great chance for a double-digit seed to advance.
The sleeper: Nobody in the bottom half of this bracket will be happy to see Southern California pop up as a potential opponent, and it appears the Trojans have a favorable draw as a No. 6 seed that could set up a potential Sweet 16 or Elite Eight run. Talent has never been the problem at USC, and the Trojans are led by a future NBA lottery pick in 7-foot freshman Evan Mobley, who has delivered on his promise by averaging 16.8 points and 8.6 rebounds. Tahj Eaddy, a two-time transfer from Southeast Missouri State and Santa Clara, is a terrific shooter who hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to beat UCLA in the final game of the regular season. The Trojans are ranked No. 14 in the KenPom ratings, ahead of potential second-round opponent Kansas.
The winner: This one is easy – it’s Gonzaga. Not only have the Bulldogs been the best team in the country from start to finish, but it almost seems like the selection committee threw them a bouquet of roses with this path to the Final Four. Gonzaga has already played and beaten Iowa, Kansas and Virginia.
The only thing that can stop Gonzaga from getting through this part of the bracket would be if the pressure of trying to become the first undefeated national champion in 45 years gets in the Bulldogs’ heads.
– Dan Wolken
East region analysis
Best first-round matchup: Colorado-Georgetown. There’s always attention paid to the 5-12 matchup as a potential upset given that it has happened in all but two tournaments since 2008. But the showdown between the Buffaloes and Hoyas is more about two evenly matched teams that are peaking at the right time. Colorado won six consecutive games before a loss to Oregon State in the Pac-12 tournament final. McKinley Wright is one of the most underrated guards in the country and can carry the Buffaloes on his back. Getting past Georgetown will not be easy, though. Patrick Ewing’s team ran through the Big East tournament with four impressive wins. And while some people might think this is just a team that got hot in the final week, the Hoyas had been peaking in the second half of the season with the inside-outside combination of Qudus Wahab and Jahvon Blair doing much of the damage.
Potential upset: Michigan StateBrigham Young. The Spartans do have some business to attend to before facing the Cougars with a First Four matchup against UCLA. The Bruins, however, have been slumping in the final month. Michigan State has the tournament pedigree needed to get through a quick turnaround after that first game. Tom Izzo has been to the Final Four eight times, and his team has been surging in the last three weeks with defeats of Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan. An early exit in the Big Ten tournament may actually be a blessing as it keeps them fresher for the main event. BYU, which lost three times to Gonzaga, has talented guard Alex Barcello as its leader. But the physical Spartans will be a tough challenge to overcome.
The sleeper: Florida State. Leonard Hamilton has never been to a Final Four. And while he has had better teams, this might be his best shot. The Seminoles are seeded fourth and look to be in good shape to get to the Sweet 16. That would likely bring a matchup with Michigan. The Wolverines are the shakiest No. 1 seed with three losses in their last five games and second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers out indefinitely with a food injury. FSU has the size, athletic ability and 3-point shooting to take them out. From there, it’s just one more win between Hamilton and the milestone.
The winner: No. 2 Alabama. In a region this balanced, it’s hard to pick among any of the four seeds. Each has a good opportunity to make the Final Four because there isn’t much difference among them. The Crimson Tide and No. 3 Texas are coming off winning their conference tournaments, which makes their potential showdown in the Sweet 16 mouth-watering and possibly decisive in making it out of the bracket. Alabama has been so consistent all season. The Tide are reliant on the 3-point shot as much as any team in the field, but cold shooting streaks haven’t been an issue because they defend so well. There’s sure to be some nail-biters but Nate Oats gets his team to its first Final Four.
– Erick Smith
South region analysis
Best first-round matchup: Texas Tech-Utah State. Fans of Mountain West Conference teams are familiar with the Aggies’ Neemias Queta. The junior 7-footer is averaging a doubledouble and has more than a few highlight rejections to his credit. The Red Raiders aren’t likely to be intimidated, having already negotiated a Big 12 schedule that is by definition among the toughest in the country, and they tend to rely on their perimeter shooting anyway. But if the triples aren’t falling and Texas Tech has to start challenging the big fella, things could get interesting.
Potential upset: This almost seems too easy, but Villanova is in for a tough time against Winthrop. The Wildcats have gotten in a couple of games since losing point guard Collin Gillespie to a knee injury, but those results have not been promising. The Eagles have lost only once, and they have a do-everything floor leader of their own, Chandler Vaudrin. If Winthrop does indeed advance, it could pose a tough challenge for Purdue in the next round as well.
The sleeper: Arkansas. One could argue that a team seeded as high as third isn’t really a sleeper, but the Razorbacks might fit the definition just the same. Not much was expected from them at the start of the campaign, but Eric Musselman has wasted no time putting his stamp on the program. A potential Sweet 16 encounter with Ohio State could be quite entertaining.
The winner: In the end, though, we’ll go with the top-seeded Bears to make the Final Four. Baylor has lost twice since coming off its COVID-19 pause but should benefit from having a few extra days of recovery time before taking the court. If Jared Butler puts up his more typical numbers in the first couple of rounds, the Bears should feel good about their chances to reach the last weekend.
– Eddie Timanus
Midwest region analysis
Best first-round matchup: Loyola Chicago vs. Georgia Tech. The Ramblers have an argument for being higher than the No. 8 seed in the region after going 24-4 and winning a third Missouri Valley Conference championship in the past four seasons. With just one loss in the last two months, Loyola is also one of the hottest teams entering the tournament. But so is Georgia Tech, which just celebrated an Atlantic Coast Conference tournament title for the first time in 28 years and looks to capitalize on the program’s first NCAA berth since 2010. While the Yellow Jackets have four scorers averaging double figures, led by forward Moses Wright at 17.4 points, they’ll be challenged by the nation’s top scoring defense (55.5 points per game).
Potential upset: Rutgers beating Clemson as a No. 10 seed would technically be an upset, even if the first-round matchup is essentially a toss-up. Perhaps the Scarlet Knights’ biggest advantage comes in preparation: Every Big Ten team has stayed in Indianapolis since the conference tournament, giving teams such as Rutgers more time to rest and recover after the grind of the regular season. But Rutgers was inconsistent down the stretch, sandwiching wins against Minnesota and Indiana with lopsided losses to Nebraska and Illinois.
The sleeper: San Diego State is a threat to make noise in March. This year’s team is stout defensively, consistently strong from behind the arc and among the nation’s best at avoiding turnovers. Those three assets tend to come in handy come tournament time. But the Aztecs must overcome a spotty track record: SDSU has gotten out of the second round just once in its last five tournament appearances.
The winner: No team outside of No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga is playing better basketball than Illinois entering the tournament. The Illini have won seven games in a row and 14 of 15, capped by an overtime victory against Ohio State to win the Big Ten conference tournament. Illinois has size, experience, depth and, in guard Ayo Dosunmu, the sort of AllAmerican talent capable of putting a team on his back in crunchtime. There’s also the bonus of a pretty easy bracket: No. 2 Houston and No. 3 West Virginia might cause trouble in a regional final, but the Illini have to be seen as the heavy favorite to come out of the Midwest.
– Paul Myerberg