Extremism takes root in politics, poll says
Survey finds acceptance of violence on both sides
A month before a white gunman killed 10 people and injured three, most of them Black, in Buffalo, New York, a poll found that 7 out of 10 Republicans said they believe in the ideas that constitute the “great replacement” theory.
That conspiracy theory, which was heavily cited in online postings purportedly left by the Buffalo shooter, claims that political forces are intentionally changing the demographics of the country to affect elections.
The poll in April of 1,500 Americans by the Southern Poverty Law Center and Tulchin Research found that 45% of young Republican men, and 42% of young male Democrats, said they approve of violence to achieve political change.
Until a few years ago, replacement theory was confined to white supremacist chatrooms, neo-Nazi websites and conspiracy theory boards. In the past few years, it has been promoted by cable network anchors, conservative pundits, politicians and other public figures.
“The poll really underscores the fact that this white nationalist replacement narrative is thoroughly mainstream on the political right,” said Susan Corke, director of the Southern Poverty Law Center’s Intelligence Project. “It’s in the water.”
The SPLC/Tulchin poll asked respondents whether they believe America’s
“This is intended to make people go back into the closet and shudder in fear, but that’s not going to happen. We’ve been through this before.”
Rodney Coates Miami University
demographics are changing, whether that’s a positive or negative thing and whether they believe the changes are orchestrated by liberal politicians.
Almost half of self-identified Republicans – 47% – responded that census projections estimating “white people will become a minority” in roughly 25 years are either “somewhat negative” or
“very negative” for the country. Twentyeight percent of Republicans polled said the changes were “somewhat positive” or “very positive.”
Sixty-seven percent of Republicans polled “believe the country’s demographic changes are being orchestrated by ‘liberal leaders actively trying to leverage political power by replacing more conservative white voters.’ ”
This belief – that the demographic change is coordinated for political gain – is the hallmark of replacement theory.
The poll found that even some Democrats believe the changes are orchestrated: 35% of self-identified Democrats said the change is driven by politicians. Unlike Republicans, most Democratic respondents saw the demographic changes as positive.
For right-wing extremists who push the theory, the shadowy group behind this effort is the Democratic Party and other liberals, according to Marilyn Mayo, a senior research fellow at the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism.
Regardless of which group believes it, there’s been no evidence that this is happening. Data doesn’t even support the idea that increasing populations of people of color will translate into more left-leaning votes.
A rise in the theory
In December 2021, an Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center poll, said 49% of Republicans said they believe “there is a group of people in this country who are trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants who agree with their political views.”
In April, The New York Times outlined how Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson spent the past year pushing his own brand of replacement theory and arguing that it is not a racist belief.
In April, Brandon Judd, president of the Border Patrol Council, appeared on Fox News to push the concept that America’s demographic changes are orchestrated by Democratic politicians.
Rodney Coates, a professor of critical race and ethnic studies at Miami University, said the surge in replacement theory rhetoric is the latest racist trope in a history of propaganda directed against Americans of color.
Coates said that in essence, politicians push the same talking point as the domestic terrorist shooter in Buffalo and that will result in more hatred and violence toward minorities.
“It’s intended to make people pause and become nervous about being outspoken, being pro-Black,” he said. “This is intended to make people go back into the closet and shudder in fear, but that’s not going to happen. We’ve been through this before.”
The Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday on the poll’s findings.
Support for political violence
The SPLC/Tulchin poll shows how entrenched Republicans and Democrats have become in their distrust and fear of each other.
From April 18 to 25, Tulchin Research conducted a nationwide survey of 1,500 adults ages 18 and older via an online panel. Respondents were asked to identify themselves as Republicans, Democrats or independents. The poll had a margin of error of +/-2.53%.
Sixty-seven percent of Democrats responded that Republicans are a threat to the country, while 63% of Republicans said the same about Democrats.
“Republicans rank ‘extremists in the Democratic Party’ as the most pressing threat facing the country, while Democrats believe the top three threats, in descending order, are Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and extremists in the Republican Party,” the SPLC report said.
The poll found that a sizable proportion of younger Americans view political violence as justifiable. Asked whether they approve of “participating in a political revolution even if it is violent in its ends,” 45% of Republican men and 42% of male Democrats younger than 50 said they approve. Fewer women approved of political violence, as did fewer men over 50.
“It’s become this sense of an existential threat that requires taking up arms, that requires fighting against this force that is operating against them,” Corke said. “The views are becoming much more radical, but within the mainstream.”
The poll suggests many Americans fear for the republic: 44% of Americans agreed the “U.S. seems headed toward a civil war in the near future,” including 53% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats. “The thing I found the most alarming is that more than half of Republicans think that we’re imminently headed towards a civil war,” Corke said.