NHL playoff drive: Analyzing division races
The end of the NHL regular season is rapidly approaching, and several key questions remain. Can the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid keep up their impressive paces to reach special territory? Who will win the tight races in the Metropolitan, Central and Pacific divisions and what are the key matchups? How will injuries affect the playoff races? And which team will have the best odds to win the May 8 draft lottery and get the chance to draft generational talent Connor Bedard?
USA TODAY Sports analyzes the stretch drive, with the regular season ending April 14:
Will the Bruins break the NHL wins record?
The NHL record is 62 by the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings and 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning. A recent stretch of three Bruins losses in four games makes it harder, but they have dominated in winning their last three games. Boston, which was fastest to 50 wins and to 100 points, needs 10 wins in its final 13 games to break the record. It plays eight games at home, where it is 27-3-3. The Bruins have a combined 18-5-1 record against their final 12 opponents.
Will Oilers’ McDavid reach 70 goals?
It will be tight. He’d have to average better than a goal a game over the final 11, but he has 14 goals in his last 13 games. Six of his final games are against three bottom-seven teams: the San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks and Arizona Coyotes. No one has had a 70goal season since the 1990s.
Who wins Metropolitan?
The Carolina Hurricanes lead the New Jersey Devils by a point with two games in hand. But they have lost Andrei Svechnikov for the rest of the season and playoffs. The Devils ended a three-game losing streak with a come-from-behind win against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Carolina and New Jersey don’t play each other for the rest of the season. The New York Rangers, six points back and on a 7-2-1 run after major trade-deadline upgrades, can make up ground with back-to-back games against the Hurricanes this week. They also face the Devils on March 30.
Who wins Atlantic?
Barring an epic collapse, the Bruins will clinch the title.
Can the current second wild-card team hang on?
It’s far too early to predict, but the surging Florida Panthers are one point ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have lost four in a row. They don’t have to face each other again this season. Florida stood still at the deadline, and two of the Penguins’ acquisitions, Dmitry Kulikov and Nick Bonino, are hurt.
The top three teams in the Metropolitan and Atlantic divisions are in good shape to make the playoffs. The New York Islanders, who hold the first wild-card spot, are managing to win without injured star Mathew Barzal. The Buffalo Sabres, Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators are heading in the wrong direction.
Who wins Central?
Just one point separates the No. 1 Dallas Stars, No. 2 Colorado Avalanche and No. 3 Minnesota Wild , and all are playing well. Stars forward Tyler Seguin returned to practice for the first time since getting cut on the leg by a skate on March 9, but he won’t play on Tuesday. The Wild have points in 15 of their last 16 games. They have played the last five games without injured leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov. The defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche have one game in hand and have won six in a row. Defenseman Cale Makar is day-to-day with a lower body injury, though it’s not considered serious. The Avalanche play the Wild on March 29 and the Stars on April 1.
Who wins Pacific?
The Vegas Golden Knights and the Los Angeles Kings are tied, with the Oilers another four points back. The Golden Knights and Kings play on April 6 (will Jonathan Quick face his former team?), and the Oilers play Vegas and Los Angeles twice each. The Golden Knights are banged up in net, but call-up Jiri Patera is 2-0 with a .929 save percentage. Kings leading scorer Kevin Fiala has missed the past five games with a lower-body injury and is day-to-day.
Can the current second wild-card team hang on?
Again, too early to predict, but the Winnipeg Jets have been inconsistent since midFebruary. The Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators, the two closest teams, are 4-4-2 and 5-3-2, respectively over their last 10 games. Nashville, which was a seller at the deadline, has three games in hand, but No. 1 defenseman Roman Josi is day-to-day. Winnipeg plays Calgary (April 5) and Nashville (April 8) in back-to-back games.
The top three teams in the Central and Pacific divisions are in good shape to make the playoffs. The second-year Seattle Kraken, currently in the first wild-card spot, have four losses in their past five games. But they are six points ahead of the Flames.
Who gets the best odds to draft Connor Bedard?
The last-place Columbus Blue Jackets pulled within .004 of the Sharks’ points percentage with an overtime win against San Jose. But that gap is up to .016 after Columbus lost three in a row, being outscored 18-7. The Blue Jackets have two games in hand. San Jose has lost seven in a row.
The bottom team has a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery.