What Iowa caucuses will mean for the race
Weather could have an impact as rivals look for momentum from first contest
The Iowa caucuses are here. The crucial early primary contest, beginning at 7 p.m. Monday, has long had the power to reshape a presidential race, tripping up front-runners and giving a boost to fierce political rivals. This year, former President Donald Trump’s Republican challengers are trying to make inroads with Hawkeye State voters.
Trump retains a commanding lead in the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Monday’s caucuses, with Nikki Haley sliding past Ron DeSantis into second place. On Sunday, Haley picked up a key endorsement from former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.
Sanford Owens, 67, traveled to Iowa from Portland, Oregon, to support Haley during the caucus. Yet, he said he doesn’t expect her to come out on top.
“I think she’s going to have a good showing, but no I don’t think she’s going to win. I think Trump will win,” Owens said.
Thinking Iowans will already be “preset” on a candidate, Owens said he believes Monday’s outcome will simply get “the ball rolling” for Haley heading into the New Hampshire primary next week.
“We’re looking for momentum,” Owens said. “If Nikki gets momentum into New Hampshire, I think we’re going to
-17 degrees nighttime low for Saturday night into Sunday morning at Des Moines International Airport.
-9 degrees forecast daytime high Sunday. With gusty winds, the wind chill could hover around minus 40 degrees.
1888 was the last time Iowa shivered through a high that low on Jan. 14, according to Allan Curtis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Johnston.
do extremely well.”
Ahead of each caucus, presidential candidates flood the state for months, if not years, to try to woo Iowans and gain their support. But the remaining GOP contenders have been canceling campaign events in recent days because of a massive blizzard blanketing Iowa.
Snow started falling in Des Moines just before midnight on Friday, and travel was not advised in the Des Moines metro area or areas to the east ahead of the weekend. Prolonged freezing temperatures, combined with strong winds, foreshadow possibly life-threatening conditions heading into tonight.
DeSantis says Iowans ‘roll their eyes at these polls’
DeSantis told WHO 13 News on Sunday that he’s skeptical about the latest poll showing 16% of likely Republican caucusgoers selected him as their first-choice candidate, while the former president is the first choice at 48%, and Haley is second at 20%.
“I think a lot of the Iowans, they just roll their eyes at these polls. I mean, the idea that you’re gonna know in a caucus with negative-20-degree temperatures what that electorate’s going to look like, you just can’t do it,” DeSantis said. “So it’s basically shooting into the wind.”
DeSantis and his endorsers have waved away poll results for months, telling crowds in Iowa that polls are part of a “media narrative” that Trump is unbeatable. In a Sunday email, the
DeSantis campaign assured its donors and supporters that the Register’s Iowa Poll has “an incredibly bad track record of predicting the results of the Iowa Caucus.” The email notes that Trump was ahead in the final Iowa poll before the 2016 caucus, but Ted Cruz was the victor on caucus night.
In the history of the Iowa Poll, no candidate with a double-digit lead over second place has gone on to lose the caucuses.
More Haley supporters would vote for Biden over Trump, poll finds
Likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa who support Haley are more skeptical than other caucusgoers that Trump, beset by legal challenges, would be able to win the general election – and they’re more likely to vote for President Joe Biden instead of Trump in November.
The Register’s Iowa Poll also asked likely Republican caucusgoers how they would vote in this year’s general election, if Trump is the Republican nominee. Most respondents, 71%, say they would vote for Trump if November is a Trump-Biden rematch, while 11% say they would vote for Biden.
Six percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 8% say they would vote for some other third-party candidate. One percent say they would not vote, and 3% aren’t sure.
“It’s time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley,” Hogan said of his endorsement on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday, adding that the former South Carolina governor has “momentum” in her uphill primary battle against Trump, with whom Hogan has repeatedly clashed.
How will the historically bad weather affect the results?
Monday is on track to be the coldest Caucus Day in the contest’s 52-year history.
“It is a wildcard like we have never seen before,” Iowa Republican operative Nicole Schlinger said.
If the weather depresses turnout by about 5%, it’s likely to affect all the candidates equally, said Republican operative David Kochel, an Iowa caucuses campaign veteran. But if that ends up being higher, it could disproportionately hurt the candidates who over-index support among older Iowans.
Among likely caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Trump leads with 52%. Haley follows with 24%, and DeSantis gets 13%.
“It’s going to be 4 (degrees) below that night and there’s an extra 6 inches of snow on the ground,” he said. “I put my money on a 40-year-old who already went to work that day and has no trouble being out and about over somebody who’s 75 and doesn’t really want to drive in it.”
It could also disproportionately affect the candidates whose support is coming primarily from rural areas.
“People may live farther from their caucus location,” Schlinger said. “It’s an older demographic who has to drive on gravel at night to go to a caucus location 15 miles away, and the diesel in their truck is gelled up. You know, those are real life consequences. And so, I think you will have different geographic disparities at play.”
Contributing: Bill Steiden, Des
Moines Register
Pitofsky, Kuchar and Jackson report for USA TODAY; Bacharier, Pfannenstiel amd Akin report for the Des Moines Register.