Careful next steps needed in Middle East
Since the terrorist attacks by Hamas on Oct. 7 resulted in the deaths or disappearance of hundreds of victims from 40 countries, Iran-aligned proxies have seized on multiple opportunities to accelerate a regional conflict that now spans compass points from Syria to Yemen and from Lebanon to Pakistan.
With a global impact, the Iranian government has also empowered its proxies to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea and to expand cyber campaigns against any countries deemed to support Israel.
Now with the killing and wounding of U.S. troops in Jordan, Iran and its proxies are pushing America toward a crucial juncture in its Middle East policy.
Iran’s historic role is central in the escalating regional conflict since Oct. 7, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its Quds Force providing support, training and equipment to terrorist groups, fueling a disturbing pattern of rising violence.
There have been increasing calls for decisive U.S. action against Iran. This growing chorus of voices includes members of Congress, veterans, military families and businesses affected by Iran-backed regional violence. Stakeholders are demanding effective measures to address the expanding threat.
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden said he had made a decision on how to respond but didn’t specify what that will look like.
“I do hold (Iran) responsible,” he said, “in the sense that they’re supplying the weapons to the people who did it.”
Avoiding Iran no longer possible
One thing is clear: The policy of avoiding escalation with Iran is neither effectively deterring nor dissuading Iranian-aligned proxies, including militias and terrorist groups, that are part of a self-described “axis” with Hamas against Israel and its supporters.
The situation has reached a point where the White House must carefully calibrate its next steps.
Each move must include a readiness to adjust to unexpected counters from Iran and its proxies.
Each move must consider the interests and alignment of America’s allies in the region and beyond – they promise support but also bring unique strengths in charting a successful way forward. At the foundation of these partnerships is a sophisticated network of data capture and intelligence sharing capable of staying one step ahead of the evolving landscape of Iranian-fueled threats.
Unfortunately there is no magic wand, and there is no mathematical risk equation or binary algorithm that yields solutions to “If America and its free world allies do X, then Iran and its axis of terrorist proxies will do Y.”
Consider the lessons already learned from the situation in the Red Sea. Retaliatory strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and strategic naval repositioning, have not succeeded in deterring the surge in Iran-backed violence that has already been targeting $1 trillion of commercial shipping each year.
In decisions to trade hard costs for reduced risks to people and property, cargo companies have diverted courses around South Africa at the cost of time, fuel and efficiency.
Before these attacks began, roughly 12% of global trade had been passing through the Red Sea, including 30% of global container traffic.
A sclerotic 200,000 containers per day traveled through the trade route in January, compared with about 500,000 in November, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute. That’s a reduction of 60%.
To effectively curb Iran’s ability to support terrorist groups behind those attacks and the recent drone operations killing our troops in Jordan, the United States may need to consider a range of options whether indirect means or direct kinetic action against the supply chain enabling these terrorists.
However, this path carries the significant risk of escalating to a state of war between the United States and Iran.
The decision-making process is complex, requiring a careful assessment of factors like Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the regime’s next moves, and the positions of America’s regional allies and partners.
We are in unscripted territory, and any response will demand flexibility and meaningful preparation for unexpected choices by enemies on the battlefields, by their backers and their political supporters in the Iranian regime.
Another area of growing concern is cyber activity associated with groups aligned with the axis. Since the Hamas terrorist attacks of Oct. 7, cyberattacks have become a significant tool in the arsenal of these Iranian-aligned groups.
Recent distributed denial-of-service attacks on governments, critical infrastructure providers and media organizations have been attributed to these groups, raising concerns about the evolving nature of the threat.
Additionally, hacktivist chatter and announcements of intent to target Israel and its allies further underscore the seriousness of the situation on multiple fronts. Yet the cyber front has also proved a source of essential intelligence for thwarting these same forces.
A nonpartisan crossroads
In the global strategic background will be continued calls from allies for sustained support to deter further Russian aggression, and an increasingly concerning situation with China’s threats to global stability and freedom of trade in the Pacific region.
In the end, this escalating conflict may demand a more robust campaign approach to get to the roots of the axis driving this widening war. Whatever choices are made today will have consequences that the next presidential administration, the American public and trusted allies must prepare to inherit.
Although we are in a presidential election year, this is a nonpartisan crossroads in Middle East policy with direct impact on global trade and on regional influence of free world powers.
Andrew Borene is executive director at Flashpoint, an international threat intelligence firm. He is a former officer at the National Counterterrorism Center and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Previously, he has been an associate deputy general counsel at the Pentagon, and he is a Marine Corps combat veteran. He has served in the Middle East and in Europe. Borene also has commercial experience leading international security efforts and growth initiatives for Fortune 500 technology companies.