Daytona 500 wins nice – don’t mean much
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – Imagine that Ray Evernham resurrects the IROC Series.
Now imagine that you own one of the teams. If cars were completely even and the series competed at an even number of races across superspeedways, intermediate tracks, road courses and short tracks, who would you want to drive your race car?
That’s the question Daytona Beach News-Journal sports editor Ryan Pritt and columnist Ken Willis asked themselves when voting on the NASCAR Cup Series power rankings for 2024. Thirtyone full-time drivers were considered and passes were given to rookies Zane Smith, Carson Hocevar and Josh Berry, none of whom have a significant sample size of work in NASCAR’s premier series.
Votes were compiled, an average was calculated and a list was created. Ties were broken by a panel of neutral race fans.
So, without further ado, the ranking of the drivers, starting from the bottom to No. 16. The top 15 will appear in Friday’s edition:
31. Harrison Burton
Car: No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 2
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: 31st
Ken’s ranking: 31
Ryan’s ranking: 30
Average: 30.5
Ken’s case: He’s won at lower levels of NASCAR racing, and upper-tier equipment would obviously help a lot. Matt DiBenedetto overachieved at times in the Wood Brothers Ford, and Burton needs to do the same if his Cup career is going to advance.
Ryan’s reasoning: Three top-10s and zero top-5s in 73 career starts. He’s still young, but there may not be any driver in NASCAR with more to prove in 2023. He’s not in the best ride in the sport, but he’s not in the worst either, not by a long shot.
30. Daniel Hemric
Car: No. 31 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 1 (2019)
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: N/A
Ken’s ranking: 30
Ryan’s ranking: 29
Average: 29.5
Ken’s case: Hemric replaces Justin Haley at Kaulig Racing, with Haley moving to Rick Ware’s team. He won an Xfinity Series championship three seasons ago, though winning just once (his only win across NASCAR’s top three divisions). One full-time Cup season, in 2019 with Childress Racing, produced little, and he’s 33 now, so it’s time to get going.
Ryan’s reasoning: On paper, losing Justin Haley and AJ Allmendinger as full-time drivers and replacing them with Hemric seems a lateral move at best, a step backward at worst. But maybe the folks at Kaulig see something that none of the rest of us do. He’ll have to be better than he was in 2019, a season with two top-10s and one top-5, a fifth at Talladega.
29. Austin Dillon
Car: No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 10
Career Cup Series wins: 4
Final 2023 points standing: 29th
Ken’s ranking: 27
Ryan’s ranking: 31
Average: 29
Ken’s case: Had an average finish of 20th last season, which is his career worst. Tyler Reddick two years ago and Kyle Busch last year proved Childress equipment can compete and win. Just throwing that out there. Dillon has been competitive at various times in his career, but a long run of it would be nice.
Ryan’s reasoning: In the last two years, RCR’s No. 8 car got three wins apiece from Reddick and Busch. Dillon has a single victory in that time, and that came in a wreck-fest at Daytona. In 10 full-time seasons, he’s never finished in the top 10 in the points standings and his four wins include two superspeedway races, a fuel-mileage win at Charlotte and a fortuitous pit strategy at Texas.
28. Austin Cindric
Car: No. 2 Team Penske Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 2
Career Cup Series wins: 1
Final 2023 points standing: 24th
Ken’s ranking: 25
Ryan’s ranking: 27
Total average: 26
Ken’s case: If they were all road courses and plate races, he’d be a perennial playoff driver and maybe a championship
contender someday. But they’re not and he’s not. Just three of his 15 career top-10s have come without righthand turns or restrictor plates.
Ryan’s reasoning: Agreed. At some point, Cindric has to show something at the intermediate ovals and short tracks that make up the bulk of the Cup Series schedule. Just two seasons in, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but with his two teammates claiming the last two Cup Series titles, it’s hard to argue that speed is any kind of issue.
27. Ryan Preece
Car: No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 4
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: 23rd
Ken’s ranking: 29
Ryan’s ranking: 23
Average: 26
Ken’s case: 2023 was a tough year to join Stewart-Haas Racing, so let’s withhold judgment and see how that team performs in ’24. However, Preece hasn’t outkicked his coverage anywhere he’s been, and he’s 33 now, so the clock is ticking. Here’s assuming he knows this.
Ryan’s reasoning: I’m a little higher on Preece than most. He was really fast at plate tracks and his short-track pedigree tells me that given decent speed, he’ll be a threat there as well. Like Ken said, you almost just have to throw out last year among the Stewart-Haas contingent.
26. Noah Gragson
Car: No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 1
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: 33rd
Ken’s ranking: 23
Ryan’s ranking: 28
Average: 25.5
Ken’s case: We have to completely write off 2023, Noah’s abbreviated season with a team severely off the rails. He’s replacing Aric Almirola at StewartHaas, and unless that team steps on a rake again this year, let’s assume Noah will get a chance to show off the promise and potential he was lugging around with him a year ago.
Ryan’s reasoning: I still believe Gragson is a potential star in a sport that drastically needs personalities. But it couldn’t have gotten off to a more dubious start. I’m all for second chances and applaud the decision from StewartHaas to extend one to Gragson, but he’s got some redeeming to do, both on the track and off it.
25. Todd Gilliland
Car: No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 2
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: 28th
Ken’s ranking: 24
Ryan’s ranking: 26
Average: 25
Ken’s call: Front Row Motorsports teammate Michael McDowell has picked up the pace the past couple of seasons, so Gilliland should improve on his two-year record of just six top-10s in 72 starts at Front Row. Yes, he should, which doesn’t mean he will, but we’ll see.
Ryan’s reasoning: Last year’s defacto demotion, bringing in Zane Smith to run a part-time schedule in the 38, couldn’t have been good for Gilliland’s confidence or development. With Smith now out of the picture, does that equal improved returns for Gilliland, or has the relationship between driver and organization been damaged?
24. Alex Bowman
Car: No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 8
Career Cup Series wins: 7
Final 2023 points standing: 20th (Missed three races due to injury)
Ken’s ranking: 20
Ryan’s ranking: 25
Average: 22.5
Ken’s call: He missed races with a concussion in 2022 and a back injury last year. It’s easy to blame his statistical downturn on that, so we will – for now, anyway. Hendrick signed him to a three-year extension last year, so let’s assume the team is counting on a rebound.
Ryan’s reasoning: Those four wins in 2021 seem like forever ago. He has but one victory in the Gen-7 and is on a 61race skid. Bowman has just one finish of 11th or better in the points standings, a sixth-place showing in 2020. For many organizations, that could fly, but not with Hendrick Motorsports and not surrounded by three of the best drivers in the sport.
23. Chase Briscoe
Car: No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 3
Career Cup Series wins: 1
Final 2023 points standing: 30th
Ken’s ranking: 26
Ryan’s ranking: 19
Average: 22.5
Ken’s call: Briscoe won nine Xfinity races in 2020. Nine! Then he joined Stewart-Haas Racing in the Cup Series and, as mentioned elsewhere, his improvement likely depends on that team finding the lost formula.
Ryan’s reasoning: Man, 2022 was so good. A ninth-place points showing, a win and six top-10 finishes in the final seven races. And then, the whole organization flatlined in 2023. But Briscoe is a good road course driver, was strong at superspeedways even last year and, with Kevin Harvick’s retirement and Aric Almirola’s departure, is now the senior statesmen at Stewart-Haas Racing. This is my rebound pick, right here.
22. Corey LaJoie
Car: No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 5
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: 25th
Ken’s ranking: 28
Ryan’s ranking: 17
Average: 22.5
Ken’s call: He enjoys a pretty good reputation for a guy who hasn’t done quite enough to earn a promotion to higher-rent equipment. If they were all plate races, he might not be Richard Petty, but he’d at least be Kyle Petty.
Ryan’s reasoning: Spire continues to pour more money and resources into its Cup Series program, buying another charter for next year. LaJoie is great at superspeedways, but he also showed some road-course speed toward the end of last year as well. It’s always been a question of the car with him, but that problem may be resolving itself. Here’s a sleeper playoff candidate next year in my book.
21. John Hunter Nemechek
Car: No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 1 (2020)
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: N/A
Ken’s ranking: 22
Ryan’s ranking: 22
Average: 22
Ken’s case: Looking for a sleeper pick for 2024? This might be the guy, assuming his new team (Legacy) fits in well with its new manufacturer (Toyota). John Hunter won seven Xfinity races last year and had 14 combined Craftsman Trucks/Xfinity wins the past three years. And he’s much more outgoing than his close-to-the-vest dad, Front Row Joe.
Ryan’s reasoning: Still one of the most fascinating stories not talked about enough: Willingly gave up a Cup seat to go back to the Truck Series, reinvent himself and come back with a stronger ride. Now the gamble pays off. It largely depends on Legacy Motor Club and its transition to Toyota, but the ability, and now the maturity, is here.
20. Justin Haley
Car: No. 51 Rick Ware Racing Ford
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 3
Career Cup Series wins: 1
Final 2023 points standing: 26th
Ken’s ranking: 15
Ryan’s ranking: 24
Average: 19.5
Ken’s case: Call it a hunch, but this Hoosier hot-rodder is going to do well enough to eventually land in a frontpack car. He saves his overachieving for road courses and plate races, which, by the way, make up nearly a third of the Cup schedule.
Ryan’s reasoning: Ken’s just a bit higher on Haley than me but it’s not completely without merit. The move to Rick Ware Racing and that organization’s commitment to improving is one of the storylines of the year for me. But Haley’s just not shown me enough on intermediate and short tracks to motivate me to move him any higher. Yet.
19. Daniel Suarez
Car: No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 7
Career Cup Series wins: 1
Final 2023 points standing: 19th
Ken’s ranking: 19
Ryan’s ranking: 20
Average: 19.5
Ken’s case: Incidentally, 19th is where he landed in the standings last season. He was 10th the year before, with a win and a career-high 13 top-10s. Right or wrong, it’s easy to compare drivers to teammates in presumably similar equipment. In this instance, the teammate is Ross Chastain and his numbers are better.
Ryan’s reasoning: Had some bad luck this year, and I think he’s one of the five to 10 best road-course drivers we have. Suarez has flashed speed plenty of other places too, but critical mistakes at inopportune times were the story of the season last year. He’s got to clean those up.
18. Ty Gibbs
Car: No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 1
Career Cup Series wins: 0
Final 2023 points standing: 18th
Ken’s ranking: 21
Ryan’s ranking: 16
Average: 18.5
Ken’s case: I spent much of last season awaiting Ty’s jump-start to his Cup career. He got better as the year went along, showed continued prowess on road courses, and is obviously with a capable organization. Stay tuned, because it’s coming, and maybe soon.
Ryan’s reasoning: Based on pure driving talent, I think we may be underrating Gibbs a bit. I was so impressed with the steady progress and the speed at the end of the year, all while keeping his nose mostly clean. I believe he finds the winner’s circle and a playoff berth and don’t be surprised if he’s knocking on the door of the top 10 on this list next year.
17. Erik Jones
Car: No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 7
Career Cup Series wins: 3
Final 2023 points standing: 27th
Ken’s ranking: 14
Ryan’s ranking: 21
Average: 17.5
Ken’s case: Yet another case of a capable racer whose potential success hinges on the ability of his team to give him something with which to work. This year, it’ll be Toyota wearing the No. 43, and hopefully that change will be what this guy needs. Lord knows it can’t get any worse than 2023.
Ryan’s reasoning: I’m a big fan of Jones, always have been, but did you know he’s never recorded a top-five at a short track, where he’s 31st in average finish since the 2021 Daytona 500. It’s not much better on road courses either where he’s 26th. I believe Jones is better than how he was treated at Joe Gibbs Racing, but there are holes on the resume that can’t be ignored.
16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Car: No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet
Career full-time Cup Series seasons: 11
Career Cup Series wins: 3
Final 2023 points standing: 16th
Ken’s ranking: 16
Ryan’s ranking: 18
Average: 17
Ken’s case: You always have the feeling Ricky could’ve had a better career if he’d made his way into a blue-chip outfit. Unfortunately, when he broke in with Roush Racing, Jack’s team was trending downward from its glory days.
Ryan’s reasoning: Tied his career high in top-10s last year and turned in his second-best season-long average finish at 17.8. But is there more in the tank? He’ll have to prove it. His struggles are the same as Jones’ as he’s 26th in career average finish at both short tracks and road courses.