Don’t sleep on state elections while watching Biden, Trump
The presidential election is always an exciting national event. That’s especially true this year, as we watch President Joe Biden face former President Donald Trump yet again. Everybody will be paying attention.
But state-level elections can affect voters far more than whoever is president and what our national policies are. These elections can determine what is prioritized in the state legislature, what is filed in Congress and what bills ultimately become local law.
State elections also can have a ripple effect across the country.
There are three races I’ll be watching this election year that could have a major impact on local voters and change the way our country operates.
A governor’s race in North Carolina, a Senate race in California and nationwide ballot initiatives on abortion are all top of mind as we head into the 2024 general election.
Two things can be true about North Carolina. It has become a Republican stronghold in recent elections and voters have typically elected a Democratic governor.
North Carolina digs into MAGA or keeps governorship for Democrats
Gov. Roy Cooper is unable to seek reelection after eight years in office. The Democrat’s potential replacements are Josh Stein, the state’s Democratic attorney general, and Mark Robinson, the Republican lieutenant governor.
Stein has spent the past eight years fighting legal battles on behalf of the state. Under his leadership, the Justice Department has sued electronic cigarette company Juul, reached a $48 billion settlement with pharmaceutical companies over the opioid epidemic and has tested 93% of eligible rape test kits that were in the state’s backlog.
Stein also says he’d want Biden to stop by North Carolina to campaign for him and has been endorsed by Cooper.
Since winning the lieutenant governor’s election in 2020, Robinson has more or less been campaigning for the governor’s seat by visiting churches across the state. Between these visits and his old Facebook posts, there’s no shortage of outrageous commentary.
In 2018, he called the survivors of the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida, “spoiled, angry, know it all CHILDREN.” In 2021, he referred to homosexuality and transness as “filth.”
Robinson has condemned abortion despite having paid for one for his nowwife in the 1980s. He is endorsed by Trump, who said recently that Robinson is “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
The outcome of the North Carolina governor’s race will indicate how much of a stronghold Trump’s ideologies still have on rural and “countrypolitan” parts of the United States, and whether Democratic precedent actually matters in a state that has grown more conservative over the years.
California Democrats gamble on beating former Dodgers player
In California, Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s death last fall left a void in the Democratic Party.
She was a well-respected U.S. senator whose work on gun laws and inequality issues spanned decades. With her absence, America lost a voice for progressive issues and a person who wasn’t afraid to work across the aisle.
The primaries for California’s open seat demonstrates just how consequential this election will be for the nation. Progressive Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee were knocked out of the race, leaving Rep. Adam Schiff as the sole Democrat to face Republican and former Dodgers player Steve Garvey. It’s a little disappointing that there are no women competing for Feinstein’s seat this November.
Schiff and his allies gave Garvey an
estimated $35 million in television ads with the presumption that a Republican would be easier to beat than a fellow Democrat.
Lee would have been a formidable candidate against Schiff given her strong track record of backing progressive policies during her decades in the House of Representatives.
The general election will test the power of name recognition, thanks to Garvey’s storied MLB career. The former baseball player was a late entry into the race, but his campaign website includes a lengthy platform that focuses on public safety and foreign affairs.
It’s possible he could appeal to Republicans and independents frustrated by Democrats’ power within the state.
If California cedes one of its Senate seats to the Republicans, it could threaten the slim Democratic majority in the Senate and harm the overall effectiveness of Congress.
Porter and Lee also agreed to leave their House seats to run for Senate, meaning more vacancies that Democrats will need to fill to overtake the slim Republican majority.
The 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision marked the end of abortion access nationwide and moved the debate to the states. Since then, elected officials have rushed to either protect or prohibit the procedure. Abortion will be top of mind for many voters at the national level, but some states will have ballot initiatives that, if passed, could affect access for patients in their entire region – Florida, Maryland and New York.
Giving voters a voice on the abortion debate
So far, Maryland is the only state with a definite ballot initiative. If passed, it will enshrine abortion access in the state’s constitution, even though the procedure is already protected by state law.
Florida voters are waiting to hear from the state Supreme Court about a citizen-led ballot initiative that would protect abortion access until viability. Other states considering ballot initiatives are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota.
Aside from protecting or limiting abortion rights for people within their state, these ballot initiatives will impact entire regions as people living in the most restrictive states seek care elsewhere. The fact that 10 states are looking for avenues to give voters a voice on the abortion debate is a reminder that the issue will likely decide the presidential election and continue to shape the legislation we see at the state and national level.
The bottom line is that state elections matter and will increasingly get attention as the presidential election settles into the Biden vs. Trump rematch. The person who serves as your governor or senator has far more impact on your everyday life than the president, and can have an impact on the lives of people across the country.
Paying attention to the state-level issues is imperative as we surmise what is at stake and what is achievable in the 2024 election.