Who made out the best in Diggs trade?
For the second time in his NFL career, Stefon Diggs is being traded.
The news broke Wednesday, the Buffalo Bills set to send the four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver and two Day 3 draft picks (one this year, one next) to the Houston Texans for a second-round choice in 2025.
While the pending deal isn’t necessarily a huge surprise given Diggs’ propensity to wear out his welcome, its aftermath is likely to have a seismic effect – beyond Houston and Western New York – on the league’s 2024 season.
Here’s an early assessment of the winners, losers and grades of the offseason’s latest major transaction:
Winners
C.J. Stroud: The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year is suddenly awash in weaponry after Houston had only one player (WR Nico Collins) with more than 60 receptions in 2023. Diggs, Collins, WR Tank Dell (recovered from a broken ankle), TE Dalton Schultz and recently acquired RB Joe Mixon (112 receptions over the past two seasons with the Bengals) could elevate an offense that ranked 12th in 2023 – and fell apart in a divisionalround playoff loss at Baltimore – well into the top five. Stroud could easily become a 5,000-yard passer in 2024.
AFC East contenders: Exporting Diggs seems like the latest maneuver in what’s shaping up as a bit of a reset in Buffalo – particularly since the Bills won’t cash in on their compensation until next year’s draft. They didn’t clinch the division for the fourth straight year until the final game of the 2023 regular season, and now the margin for error against the Miami Dolphins and – perhaps – New York Jets could be nonexistent.
Draft-eligible wideouts: This year’s draft is stocked with blue-chip pass catchers, and now another may be coming off the board in Round 1 – the Bills are scheduled to pick 28th – given Buffalo’s fresh vacancy. LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr., Texas’ Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy, Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, Florida State’s Keon Coleman, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette and Florida’s Ricky Pearsall could all be viable option in the first and/or second round, where the Bills select 60th overall.
Kansas City Chiefs: The league’s newly minted dynasty has eliminated Buffalo from the playoffs three of the past four seasons, typically under great duress. Appears that won’t be a problem this winter … though worth wondering if the Texans might be.
Diggs vs. Diggs: Dallas Pro Bowl CB Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL last season, preventing him from lining up across from his older brother – for the first time as NFL peers – last December in Buffalo. However, provided no more health issues surface, the matchup should materialize this year given the Texans are scheduled to face the Cowboys at Jerry World.
Stefon Diggs: He lands with another contending team with, let’s say, a Tier 2 quarterback seemingly on the fast track to Tier 1. He also gets to play indoors rather than in the wintry Buffalo conditions that can often depress a receiver’s production and impact late in the season. Collins is also arguably the best wingman Diggs has had since Adam Thielen was his teammate with the Minnesota Vikings. Could be a huge year for Diggs personally.
Losers
Stefon Diggs: It’s rare for a team to move a WR1 in the prime of his career, much less for it to happen twice – and for far less than the draft hauls commanded by, say, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, who both fetched a first- and secondrounder at their All-Pro exchange rates (plus more in Hill’s case).
But this also speaks to the friction that has followed Diggs, 30, from the University of Maryland to Minneapolis to Buffalo.
He’s under contract for four more seasons, plenty of time to find out if he’ll be a good soldier in Houston, or if Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans will be answering a constant stream of questions about him as Bills QB Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott regularly found themselves doing.
It’s also worth noting that Diggs’ role in Buffalo steadily diminished last season – he didn’t reach double-digit catches or 100 receiving yards in a game after Week 6.
Nico Collins: With Stroud throwing to him, the 2021 third-rounder had a breakout performance last season (80 catches for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns).
Entering his walk year, Collins is already fielding questions about a top-ofmarket extension. However, that could become much harder to realize if Diggs cuts into his stats and/or if Houston general manager Nick Caserio is unwilling to devote a huge chunk of his salary cap to two wideouts.
Buffalo’s Super Bowl window: A team that’s had Lombardi Trophy aspirations for years just punted on its best wideout. And while Diggs’ numbers steadily declined throughout last season, a WR1’s influence typically goes beyond his numbers to how he’s able to affect a defense schematically.
It’s possible TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, WRs Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir and RB James Cook can compensate by committee for Diggs’ statistical void – or at least until a replacement can be brought up to speed – but none are likely to scare defensive coordinators in the same way or draw double teams. The Bills should remain playoffcaliber, but hard to see how this year’s edition makes more noise in the postseason than Buffalo’s recent squads.
AFC South: The Texans made a huge statement in 2023, Ryans and Stroud the first rookie head coach-quarterback combo to earn a division crown. And while they only finished one game ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts last season, it already felt like the gap was growing prior to the Diggs deal.
Tee Higgins: If Diggs essentially commands a second-rounder lite and new Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen can be had for a fourth-rounder, the franchisetagged Bengals WR2 may not find a robust trade market as he continues seeking a long-term deal himself.
Cincinnati really has little incentive to trade him, and the draft’s wideout supply is likely to discourage other teams from paying the Bengals a sufficient bounty for Higgins.