Weekly Market Update With Lilja, Progressive Ag
I took my second grader out to try and get a glimpse of the Star of Bethlehem after sunset December 21st. We looked to the west / southwest as the astronomers mentioned but the clouds didn’t give us much of a view. They say we’ll have a couple more evenings to try and take it in so hopefully 2020 doesn’t end in a cloud. When I was a boy, I remember some distant relatives visiting our farm. They were from the east coast and they marveled at all the stars they could view from rural Grand Forks county on a July summers evening. I’ll never forget at how awe struck they were; the adults just as much as the children. Our view of the stars is another thing that most of us don’t even realize or take for granted in the northern plains.
The experts say this hasn’t happened in 800 years, before telescopes. So when the two largest planets in our solar system combined, the folks from 1226 may have had the same looks on their faces as my distant relatives. According to a few articles, there was a lot going on in the sky 2,000 years ago. Jupiter and Saturn converged and 4 years later Jupiter and Venus converged. Chinese astronomers also noted a broom star within this 4-year timeframe of 7 BC to 3 BC.
Speaking of the Chinese, they continue their buying binge of US soybeans. A port strike in Argentina has redirected China’s soybean meal and soybean oil demand to the United States. China’s hog herd is up 29.8% from the year prior and their sow herd is up 31.2% according to their ag ministry. This is a good sign for needed meal and oil demand but it’s a negative sign for US pork exports. Weather was also supportive of higher prices as onemonth forecasts show a continuation of the LaNina pattern. Argentina shows a greater chance of continued dry conditions, while Brazil has better odds of rainfall. One of the biggest questions facing the market in the coming weeks is if Brazil will plant its normal amount of second crop corn acres or if these acres will be diminished due to dry conditions. If they cut these acres, the corn market could start acting like the soybean market has acted recently. The bulls did end up feasting just prior to Christmas as soybeans futures broke above the June 2016 high of $12.08 reaching $12.5625 on the March contract. Look for continued strength to the row crop complex as good demand, supply threats to South America and a weaker US Dollar lead the way.
Consume a ham, take some time to view the stars and have a Merry Christmas.
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