Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
I texted a rancher friend from west of the Missouri River just before the storm hit and said hang in there bud. He said thanks, it doesn’t sound like its going to be a fun week on the ranch. By all accounts the weather service warnings were spot on. My friend and his feedlot came out OK but there were a lot of others who didn’t. There was actually a radio segment on the do’s and don’ts of giving newborn calves that get hypothermic warm baths to pull them out of it. The guy on the radio said we’ve done that rarely in the past under emergency situations and his wife really didn’t care for that in the house. I heard one report that a rancher had his barn so full that the momma cows were crushing newborn calves. I also heard another story from Montana that the cattle were so herded up and in deep snow that the coyotes were eating the newborn calves and the cows couldn’t fight them off in the conditions. There were also a few reports of dairy farmers who had to simply dump milk because the roads were impassible for the milk trucks to pick up the product. There are times when I kind of wish that I was out in the open field instead of being in an office setting but last week wasn’t one of them. The next time you grab some hamburger, steak or milk remember what the American farmer and rancher have to endure to produce the food you eat.
The market remains very concerned over the planting situation in the Ukraine and the US, particularly in regards to corn and the fertilizer supply chain disruptions that are occurring. Corn futures exceeded $8.00 for the first time since September 2012 in a market that shows no technical sign of a top. The Ukrainian Ag Ministry slightly increased their planted corn estimates to 14 million hectares. This is down 17% from last year. Trade is viewing this as too optimistic as the longer the conflict drags out the lower this number will be. Over the weekend, peace talks broke down.
Weekly crop condition ratings show US corn plantings are at 4% vs. 6% average.
Winter wheat development is behind normal pace at 7% headed vs. 12% normal. Spring wheat plantings are at 8% vs. 9% normal with all activity in the Pacific Northwest.
US winter wheat ratings declined 2% to 30% good to excellent, 32% fair and 37% poor to very poor. This compares to 53% g/e, 30% fair and 17% p/vp last year at this time. These are some of the worst ratings for this time of year on record. Kansas declined 1% to 33% good to excellent, 36% fair and 31% poor to very poor. Oklahoma declined 8% to 21% g/e, 42% fair and 37% p/vp. Texas declined 1% to 6% g/e and shows 81% of their winter wheat rated poor to very poor. Colorado declined 6% to 14% g/e, 38% fair and 48% p/vp. The Pacific Northwest showed Washington was steady at 56% good to excellent, 35% fair and 9% poor to very poor. Oregon improved 6% to 57% g/e, 33% fair and 10% p/vp.
Overall topsoil ratings for the lower 48 declined 1% to 64% surplus or adequate, and 36% short to very short. Subsoil ratings were steady at 60% surplus or adequate and 40% short to very short. These are both 5% less than last year at this time.
1-5 day forecasts show wet conditions for the northern plains, Iowa and Illinois. The southern plains is also favored for rainfall with the better chances in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. 6 to 10 day forecasts have cold and wet conditions for most of the cornbelt. 8 to 14 day forecasts are generally cooler than normal for most of the country. This will add to delayed planting scenarios and should support corn the most in the short term.