Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
I listened to an interesting weather segment last week on WDAY radio. There’s a weatherman that has developed a long range forecasting model called the Lezak Recurring Cycle or LRC based on weather patterns that start around October 6th when the sun sets in full darkness (no twilight) at the north pole. They look for the same system to repeat after the October 5th8th timeframe. When the next similar system shows up they then have a cycle timeframe down for weather until early October of the following year. The cycle timeframe varies in duration and this year they pegged it at 63-64 days. The interesting thing was I wrote down their prediction for a nasty April 19-20th storm system to hit the southern plains with multiple tornadoes and a bad snowstorm for the northern plains back in January. They were only off by a day or two 3 months prior! I’ve golfed with and talked to weatherman throughout the years and they have all generally stated that it’s awfully tough to call the weather farther than a week out. The LRC prediction for the summer in our area is 20-30% more than normal rainfall with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. The weeks of Memorial Day, 4th of July and Labor Day will all be stormy and wet. The last hard spring frost chance will be around the 10th of May and temperatures will drop to cooler than normal on or about August 20th. September will be colder with heightened chances of an early frost. I’m keenly interested to see how our weather plays out according to this LRC model prediction through October 6th.
Weekend rainfall maps showed eastern South Dakota, eastern
North Dakota and southern Manitoba experiencing 2 to 4 inch rainfalls which will further delay plantings. Central Montana received 0.25 to 1.0 inch rains. Much of Oklahoma, Kansas and northern Texas received 0.5 to 2 inch rainfall. This was better than expected for the southern plains and put pressure on Kansas City wheat futures early week.
The weekly US crop progress report showed a late planting scenario stacking up for much of the Midwest and northern plains. Spring wheat plantings are at 19% vs. 28% normal. North Dakota reported only 1% progress last week and is currently 5% planted vs. 18% normal. Minnesota is 1% planted vs. 24% normal. US corn planting pace is 14% compared to 33% normal. The heart of the corn belt “I” states shows Iowa 33% behind normal, Illinois 36% behind and Indiana 19% behind. US soybean plantings are 8% vs. 13% normal. Cotton and Sorghum were the few US crops that were near average planting pace.
US winter wheat ratings were steady at 27% good to excellent, 30% fair and 43% poor to very poor. This compares to 48% g/e, 33% fair and 19% p/vp last year at this time. Kansas declined 1% to 25% good to excellent, 36% fair and 39% poor to very poor. Oklahoma improved 1% to 17% g/e, 32% fair and 51% p/vp. Texas was steady at 8% g/e and shows 77% of their winter wheat rated poor to very poor. Colorado declined 5% to 12% g/e, 31% fair and 57% p/ vp. The Pacific Northwest showed Washington and Oregon improving 2% to 54% g/e and 57% g/e, respectively. Winter wheat headed is at 23% vs. 29% normal. Spring wheat emerged is at 5% vs. 7% normal.
Overall topsoil ratings for the lower 48 improved 2% to 68% surplus or adequate, and 32% short to very short. Subsoil ratings improved 1% to 63% surplus or adequate and 37% short to very short. These are on par with the same week last year.
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