Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja

The barter system has been alive and well in our small town. A few weeks ago a couple of us borrowed a jackhammer from a contractor neighbor to punch additional sump pit holes in a couple properties after the monsoon. Last weekend started off with a phone call asking if I would lend out my chainsaw to get a large tree branch that fell on a small shop building after the 50 mph winds. I don’t let anybody touch my top of the line Swedish chainsaw, so I was glad to do the cutting. This task ended up requiring the use of a payloader which another neighbor had. He was willing to spend a few hours at the wheel while his boys helped clean up the branches. Our neighbor was elated that we had the whole thing wrapped up in a team effort in two hours. I’ve also been bartering my time mowing a couple large lots in town in exchange for 12 or 16 oz. liquid containers. I got my riding mower stuck deep in the middle of that property and needed some additional chain so I could keep my pickup truck on solid ground. The neighbor whose shop was crunched lent us an additional chain. Things generally seem to come full circle and its great to see in our community.

There’s an old saying that bull markets need to continually be fed to keep momentum moving higher. The grain markets received more feed or fuel to the fire as India reported that they will place a ban wheat exports. This sent wheat futures limit up to start the week with corn and soybeans following higher. India did confirm that sales with active letters of credit will be allowed to proceed.

More bullish news came with weekly crop progress reports as planting delays persist. US Spring Wheat was 39% planted vs. trade expectations of 43%. This compares to the 5-year average of 67%. Minnesota is 5% planted vs. 75% normal. North Dakota is 17% planted vs. 60% normal. This sent July MPLS futures to $14.1275, the highest level since March of 2008. Kansas City wheat futures came within 5.5 cents of the all-time high of $13.8425 from February of 2008 as condition ratings deteriorated increasing the likelihood of a poor crop.

US winter wheat ratings declined 2% to 27% good to excellent, 32% fair and 41% poor to very poor. Trade was expecting steady to a 1% improvement. This compares to 48% g/e, 33% fair and 19% p/vp last year at this time. Kansas declined 4% to 2% good to excellent, Oklahoma declined 7% to 13% g/e, Texas declined 2% to 5% g/e and shows 81% of their winter wheat rated poor to very poor. Colorado improved 8% to 19% g/e, Washington improved 5% to 61% g/e and Oregon declined 10% to 66% g/e. Winter wheat headed is at 48% vs. 53% normal.

Corn plantings were at the trade expectations of 49%. This compares to 67% for the 5-year average. Iowa and Illinois reported getting 40-43% of their crop planted in the past week. Most states reported good planting progress with the exception of North Dakota which is only 4% planted vs. 41% average. Minnesota numbers looked better on paper as the southern half of the state made good progress but northern areas haven’t turned a wheel. Corn emergence is at 14% vs. 32% normal. New crop December 2022 also put in a new high at $7.6625.

US soybeans planted were at 30% complete vs. 39% average. This showed 18% progress in one week. The northern plains still lags with Minnesota 11% planted vs 47% for an average. ND is 2% vs 24% average.

NOPA U.S. crush numbers for April 2022 came in at 169.788 million bushels of soybeans. This was below expectations of 172.37 million bushels but up 5.9% from April 2021. Soybean oil stocks were at 1.814 billion lbs. and lower than expectations of 1.839 billion lbs. These are the smallest stocks since September. Crush margins are still very strong with cash margins over $3.00 per bushel. Canola futures also reached new alltime highs at $1,219.00/ MT CAD on planting delays in the southern Canadian Prairies.

Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.

Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.