Political Forecasting 2018: Not As Easy As 1-2-3

Forget about a New Year being easy.

It is anything but easy. Just ask… well just ask any state Legislator or state Constitutional Officer in Arkansas. Right now the Congressional delegation, all four of our Congressmen have at least one, if not two or more fringe opponents for their mid-term elections.

The year 2018, will also presents some of its own challenges.

To wit:

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The U.S. Census Bureau handed Arkansas a nifty little gift over the holidays – finally, after a down-turn in the state’s population in the late 1940s, the state’s population is back up over 3,000,000 — yes, three million people now live within the borders of our state.

Is that enough people for a new Congressional District?

Well don’t get ahead of yourself — not yet anyway. It may take closer to 3.5 million before somehow, some way; the state gets to reorganize its Congressional delegation from the four current congressmen to the projected five congressmen. Arkansas may have – at current population growth rates achieved that goal — perhaps by the mid-2020s.

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This past week, Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who thought he has put the “open carry” law to rest — resurrected that little gem. He did that just in time for the fiscal session — where technical tweaks to the state’s budget and other minute changes to the state’s statutes can be done. Now, apparently lawmakers will re-visit some gun laws.

And just when the sitting state Legislators thought they could run on that old verbal saw of: “I support the 2nd Amendment,” must now, possibly, be forced to vote on a new “open carry” law.

Should we expect to see “side-arms” or small gauge “shotguns” being carried on the city streets or inside major big box retailers in the future?

This solely depends on this new revisiting of the Arkansas statute, brought to you by our Governor in re-election mode, catching flak from a far right-wing gun-toting candidate in gun-range owner Jan Morgan of Hot Springs.

And now Arkansans will get to once again — debate that old tired, shop-worn fuss over carrying guns out in the open.

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Plus 2018 will bring about — dare we say it — party primaries.

Our Republican Governor, as a young man, never saw a political race he didn’t want to be a GOP candidate in — until he got elected governor.

Ever since the 1990s, Asa has learned the best way to campaign is without direct opposition within the Grand Old Party.

As a candidate running unopposed in your party you can hit the campaign trail, all the people of your political ilk are glad to see you.

There are no other likeminded candidate signs to drive past on the highways The barbecue dinners and fish fries certainly taste better — as you can enjoy the meal rather than hurrying to another event.

And the GOP campaign contributions come faster and easier when you are unopposed, than say trying to guess if your former supporter is holding back, giving to the other GOP candidate or just being coy about parting with his or her campaign contribution money.

Now all GOP bets are off, and Jan Morgan has gotten the ear of the far-righters, who are known to be a little stingy with campaign cash. Asa is perplexed. These right-wingers are “neverthe-less” a group, Asa would rather have their pittance of cash and tepid support, than see it all going to another GOP candidate.

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The tax cuts at the federal level apparently will have a big effect on some Arkansans, but our governor says “do not worry,” and quickly prefaces this remark about those property taxes as collected at the county level – not at the level upon which Asa Hutchinson lords over.

In other words, “if the Trump tax cut hurts you – don’t blame me (Asa Hutchinson and my GOP controlled state House and state Senate). We like tax cuts too but we didn’t induce these on you.”

But this new tax cut out of Washington, D.C., falls at the feet of the four Congressmen and our two U.S. Senators and that guy with the bad comb-over.