川普推文對北京超客氣

川普慣常用商場談判手法，處理內政和國際事務，以為借美國強大國力作後盾，可無往不利。他改造拳擊影片，「川普擊倒CNN」讓自己爽，「川粉」們樂得唱和，但他半夜不睡覺、凌晨發推文「恐嚇」中國，和北京鎮定自若相較，很像是「政壇菜鳥」和老辣的「國際老江湖」交手，證明迄今未討到便宜。

川普5日發推文，批中國與北韓貿易激增，證明美國仰仗北京約束平壤根本靠不住。這是自打嘴巴，想靠習近平壓制北韓，華府押寶北京，如今兩個多月過去，證明完全無效。奇怪的是，川普推文說，「中國與北韓之間的貿易首季成長近40%，對與我們合作的中國來說很多，但我們仍得試試！」似乎還是不敢怪罪北京。這樣「溫良恭儉讓」，和川普大喇喇左批媒體、右打任何看不順眼的人判若兩人，不像川普的強硬風格。川普昨天推文，應是動身前往德國參加20國集團（G20）峰會，會和習近平會面前的放話，告訴北京「我對你們很不滿意」。這不是第一次。川普4月中說「北韓在找麻煩，如果中國決定幫忙，那很好；如果不幫，我們會自己動手解決」，語帶威脅。和習近平峰會後，川普說 「我真的開始喜歡習近平」；6月20日改口說，「雖感謝習近平主席和中國在北韓問題上的協助，但沒有奏效」。北韓在美國國慶日試射洲際飛彈，川普 才赫然發現，原來中朝貿易不減反增，被北京耍了，是否嫌遲了？川普似乎頗迷信用推特，以為可號令天下，鞭笞政敵、媒體。但用在國際強權競爭，就沒那麼管用。北京對北韓核武早已訂下指導原則，六方會談迄今，進退有依據，首先考量的是中國利益，其次才是北韓立場，然後才是如何應付美國。簡單說，北京似未因懼怕川普在經貿、南海或台灣問題等刁難中國，就百依百順。川普可能流於一廂情願，繼續商場談判那套，雙方領袖見面前先放風，發話震懾對方，然後在談判時擺高姿態，壓迫對方退讓。從佛州川習會迄今，可看出川普容易被騙（紐約時報就這樣認定），尤其擅長國際外交談判的北京一群專家面前，川普團隊顯得「嫩」。華府各部會500多位政治性任命的中高層幕僚，迄今只任命120多人，國務院亞太政策幾乎真空，這群懂內情的專家缺席，更讓川普捉襟見肘，靠推文搞外交能成功才怪。北京或許注意川普的推文，研判美國動向，卻沒那麼在乎川普說甚麼。習近平答應配合美國制裁北韓，只要關閉石油供應，北韓95%能源供應中斷，會馬上豎白旗，更甭談糧食和其他必需品了，但北京卻不這麼做。愛罵人的川普，這回怎麼不厲言指責北京，推文反而「和風細雨」，他和家族在中國的商業利益（現在和未來的），可能都被踩住尾巴了。

Donald Trump loves to apply his business negotiation skills on American domestic and international affairs. He gleefully posted a doctored video showing him beating up a man with a CNN logo on his face. However, he stayed awake during the wee hours to "intimidate" China only to be met with calmness. It was like a political rookie challenging a seasoned international pro.

In his July 5 tweet, Trump criticized the sharp increase of the trade between China and North Korea as proof that it's unrealistic to expect China to reign in North Korea. It's like slapping your own face. Americans are counting on Xi Jinping to stop North Korea.

Trump, seeming to avoid offending Beijing, tweeted "Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us - but we had to give it a try!" Such a "gentler" approach was a far cry from the normally unyielding Trump who openly scolds anyone not to his liking.

Trump's tweets were supposedly a warning shot before his departure to Germany for the G20 and the meeting with Xi. This was not the first time he did this. In April, Trump tweeted, "If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them!"

After meeting Xi in April, Trump tweeted, "I really liked him." But on June 20, he tweeted, "While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out." North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Independence Day. Trump realized that trade between China and North Korea were increasing instead of declining and he was fooled. But was it too late?

Trump seems to have too much faith in Twitter, thinking it can help him to rule the world and blast his enemies. But it's not working as well on the world stage with other superpowers. Beijing has its own guidelines regarding North Korea's nuclear program and act accordingly since the six-party talks. The utmost consideration is China's own interest. North Korea's position come next, then comes how to deal with the US.

Simply speaking, it seems that China has not kowtowed to Trump for fear that he would give China a tough time regarding trade, the South China Sea and Taiwan issues. It could be a wishful thinking on Trump's part to continue to rely on his business negotiation skills.

Ever since the Florida summit, Donald Trump has been regarded as a gullible guy by the New York Times. He seemed especially immature in front of a group of Beijing's negotiation experts on international diplomacy. There are more than 500 departmental mid-to-high level positions for political appointees in Washington D.C. Only 120 of them has been filled. There is a virtual vacuum for Asian-Pacific policymaking in the State Department. The absence of these insider experts is hampering Trump. It's unimaginable that tweets can result in diplomatic successes.

Perhaps Beijing only watched Trump's tweets to pinpoint the American direction without actually considering what was said. If Xi promises to help the US to crackdown on North Korea, he only needs to cut off the oil supply to make 95% of North Korean energy supply disappear. That alone would make North Koreans kneel on their knees. But Beijing won't do it.

Why didn't the sharp-tongued Trump sternly blame Beijing but instead tweeted such "softballs"? His and his family's current and future business interests in China could already be under the gun.