China Q1 GDP and Retail Sales Up
● March data illustrates that it will be difficult to rely on consumption alone this year to drive growth, according to ING analyst Lynn Song.
In the first quarter, China's economic growth surpassed expectations to reach 5.3 percent, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.
For the months of January to March, the world's second largest economy's GDP reached 296.30 billion renminbi, or $40.9 billion, a 1.6 percent increase on a quarterto-quarter basis, according to the NBS.
This March, Beijing set a target of 5 percent GDP growth for 2024.
The growth in the first quarter was largely driven by an uptick in manufacturing and investment, while consumption, a main driver of 2023 growth, has moderated, according to ING's chief economist Lynn Song.
"As expected, after carrying growth in 2023, March data illustrates that it will be difficult to rely on consumption alone this year to drive growth," Song said.
"The level of economic uncertainty has moderately decreased, yet it remains historically high. Concerns persist regarding the property crisis, which appears to cast a long shadow that is proving challenging to dispel," Natixis' chief economist in Asia Pacific, Alicia Garcia Herrero, wrote in a recent research note.
Despite measures to boost growth, China's real estate sector continued to show weakness, with real estate investment falling 9.5 percent year-overyear in the first three months. "The bottom has yet to be confirmed," Song said of China's distressed real estate sector.
Urban unemployment rate inched down 0.3 percent year-over-year to 5.2 percent in the quarter.
Retail sales totaled 123.27 billion renminbi, or $17 billion, registering a year-over-year growth of 4.7 percent. For March, retail sales grew 3.1 percent year-over-year to reach 390.2 billion renminbi, or $53.9 billion.
More specifically, apparel, footwear and knitwear retail sales rose 2.5 percent to 369.4 billion renminbi, or $51 billion, in the first quarter. Per capita expenditure on clothing increased 12.4 percent to reach 492 renminbi, or $59, in the first quarter.
Cosmetics retail sales grew 3.4 percent to 108.6 billion renminbi, or $15 billion.
Gold, silver and jewelry sales grew
4.5 percent to 99.6 billion renminbi, or $13.7 billion.