Yumans hardest-hit group in U.S. under GOP health plan

Report says insurance changes may create problems for some citizens

PHOENIX — Residents of Yuma who have been getting subsidized insurance through the Affordable Care Act will be the worst off financially of any major city in the country if Congress enacts what House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Trump and are pushing.

An analysis by WalletHub concludes that the average Yuma resident gets a subsidy under “Obamacare’’ of $12,815. That’s based on an analysis by the financial web site based on figures from the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator.

Then it looked at the tax credits under the proposed American Health Care Act which are based on the age of the people insured, ranging from $4,000 to $8,000. For Yuma, WalletHub figured the typical credit would be

$5,000.

The difference for Yuma is $7,815, the highest of the 457 cities studied nationwide.

Glendale came in second in the state and No. 34 nationwide, with a $2,100 difference between what eligible residents there receive under the Affordable Care Act and the $5,000 tax credit they would get.

Mesa and Phoenix followed at 39 and 40 nationwide, with differences of $2,016 and $1,962 respectively.

The difference for San Tan Valley was $1,938, at least in part because Wallet Hub figured that the average age of those getting care in that community was lower than the other cities. That means a tax credit of just $4,000 under the Ryan legislation.

Ditto for Tempe, with those eligible for subsidized care incurring a $1,749 additional cost.

But there’s another side to the story.

Wallet Hub used subsidies for the Affordable Care Act based on the 10 most populated zip codes in each community. The result was that for some cities, there were no or very few people getting subsidies.

But the tax credits available under the Ryan plan to purchase health insurance are based solely on age. And there is no phase out until income reaches $75,000.

What that means is that residents of more affluent cities, on average, will do much better under the federal proposal.

For example, Scottsdale is at the bottom of the list of most affected areas, with the typical resident there not getting any subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. But based on the average age, the tax credit under the Ryan plan would be $6,000.

According to Wallet Hub, it used those Kaiser Family Foundation report of subsidies as a starting point then assumed for each city a two-person household earning the median income. It then averaged the subsidies each household would receive in the 10 most populated zip codes in each city.

For tax credits under the Ryan plan, it used the agebased amounts starting a $4,000 for those 20 through 29, rising to $8,000 for those 60 and older.

A separate county-by-county study done by Kaiser Family Foundation estimated what the premiums would be in 2020 if the Affordable Care Act remains in place versus what would be the typical credit if the American Health Care Act is in effect that year.

Kaiser is using someone age 40, which means the typical credit statewide would be just $3,000. And its example uses someone with a $30,000 income.

But even using that methodology, Kaiser figures that only Pima County residents, on average, would be better off with the change. It pegs the typical cost under the Affordable Care Act by 2020 at just $2,680.

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, people who are older, lower-income or live in high-premium areas — it specifically mentions Arizona — receive larger subsidies under the Affordable Care Act than they would under the replacement plan.

Conversely, the foundation concluded, people who are younger, with higher income, or live in low-premium areas like Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Washington, may receive larger assistance under Ryan’s plan.

Kaiser Family Foundation did its own study, but on a county-by-county basis.