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State economist: Yuma County population increasing at about 2 percent clip
Editor’s Note: This story is one in a series looking at local government, as well as how Yuma County’s cities and towns have grown and changed historically.
Yuma County is growing, no matter whose data you view.
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity and the Eller College of Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona all show growth throughout the area, some slow, some fast.
Yuma County is growing at a rate of about 2 percent, said economist Doug Walls, of Arizona’s Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO).
The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2016 Population Estimate puts the county’s population at 205,631, up from the 2010 Census count of 195,750, or about 9,881 people.
Walls said the OEO, which falls under the Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA), also projects its own population estimates, using additional data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the University of Arizona’s Eller Business and Research Center, and its own surveys. The ADOA estimated Yuma County’s population as of July 1, 2016, to be 217,730, which is about 12,100 (12,099 to be exact) more than the U.S. Census Bureau.
“We were able to focus a little bit more on the specific regions and our estimates tend to better account for the actual populations that are there,” Walls said in a phone interview with the Yuma Sun.
Walls said the OEO provides three projections for each metropolitan statistical area in Arizona: a low projection, a medium projec-
tion and a high projection. The metropolitan statistical area for Yuma includes all of Yuma County.
Looking at Arizona as a whole (using OEO’s medium projection), the state is projected to grow steadily through about 2030, Walls said, then slow again. For Yuma County, population projections by the OEO for 2030 are expected to hit 269,702 for the entire MSA; San Luis to 57,664; Somerton to grow to 22,530; Wellton to 4,236; the city of Yuma to hit 117,091; and the Fortuna Foothills (which is a Census Designated Place) to hit 32,511.
“By 2030, I would say, the population rate of growth has slowed for Arizona, as a whole. These aren’t rates of growth that we’re seeing for any of the areas prior to the recession, but one thing that has occurred during this recovery period is that we’re seeing more of an influx of individuals into Arizona,” he said.
People could be moving due to job opportunities, the climate, cost of living or retirement. Walls also said the state is seeing a “pickup in migration either domestic or foreign into Arizona and that’s gonna be spread across all of the counties, not just Maricopa.”
“So that’s gonna be the major cause for the increase there,” he said.
South County cities of Somerton and San Luis seem to be bearing a lot of the growth that the county is seeing, Walls said. Interactive maps from the Arizona Council of Governments and the Metropolitan Planning Organizations (which use U.S. Census data) show as much as 36 percent of South Yuma County’s population is under age 5.
By 2050, the population of San Luis is projected to more than triple from 25,614 (2010 OEO) to 86,131 (2050 OEO). Somerton is also projected to more than double in size from 14,329 (2010 OEO) to 31,689. (2050 OEO)
“From 2015 to 2030 we’re going to be seeing an increase in (ages) 0-9, of 20 percent to 24 percent,” Walls said. “But also growing rather quickly would be individuals 25-29, up to 35-39, which looks like the growth rate of about 36 percent up to 60 percent.”
Walls also noted the percentage of Baby Boomers will be also be growing during that time period (those 85 or older by 2030).
On the job front, Walls noted Yuma’s unemployment rate is down slightly, and job growth in the area seems to be steady.
“This is some of the fastest employment growth that we’ve seen in Yuma County since the beginning of the Recession and end of the Recovery Period,” Walls said of job growth. “That’s one of the positive aspects of this last employment report, is of the seven metro areas, Yuma was seen growing the fastest.”