Science of upsets: Professor has a formula that doubles your shot
Message to hoops fans: This story could make you look brilliant.
A computer science professor at University of Illinois has created a formula that predicts NCAA tournament upsets at double the success rate of someone picking at random — including, but not limited to, those who throw darts at the bracket, or pick based on their favorite color, the most ferocious mascot or the number of vowels in the coach’s last name.
This year’s upset picks both come out of the South region. They are No. 13 Buffalo over No. 4 Arizona and No. 14 Wright State over No. 3 Tennessee.
But before betting the mortgage, read on:
The computer scientist who spearheads this project, Sheldon Jacobson, says the computer models only analyze potential upsets by 13, 14 and 15 seeds. A 16 seed has never beaten a 1; anything involving 11s or 12s produce “too much noise,” Jacobson says, meaning the relative closeness of the underdogs with their fifth- and sixthseeded opponents interferes with the statistical model he uses to predict the upsets.
Jacobson and fellow scientists pared down 115 publicly available metrics for every team in college basketball to 15 that have served as the best predictors of upsets in years past.
Some examples include effective possession ratio — essentially the number of points a team scores per possession — along with average scoring margin and opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage.
Now for the science: The framework of these formulas is called “balance optimization subset selection” (BOSS), which is an artificial-intelligence algorithm (Google that if so inclined). The National Science Foundation initially funded Jacobson for a project that used artificial intelligence to explore societal issues, such as whether government-sponsored programs to enhance job skills ultimately lead to higher incomes for workers.
After the funding ran out, Jacobson sought uses for his creation that could REALLY help people.
March Madness generates more than $10 billion a year in wagering, much of which comes when players chip in $10 or $20 and fill out brackets for their office pools.
Jacobson’s website, bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu, gets thousands of hits a day this time of year.