Ariz. jobless rate higher than nat’l figure

PHOENIX — The state’s jobless rate is up a tenth of a point and stands exactly where it did a year ago.

And it’s now a full point higher than the national figure.

Locally, Yuma County’s unemployment rate dropped three points between August and September, as summer ended and the area’s seasonal jobs began to come back online.

Doug Walls, the research administrator for the state Office of Economic Opportunity, in announcing the last set of numbers before Election Day, said the statewide increase isn’t a bad sign for the Arizona economy that incumbent Doug Ducey says has been booming under his tenure.

Walls said Thursday there are “other metrics’’ that show how well the state is really doing.

On paper, the numbers are simple.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September is 4.7 percent compared to 4.6 percent in August. The 3.7 percent fig-

ure for the country, by contrast, is down two tenths of a point.

What’s affecting the unemployment rate, he said, is that the rate of job creation here is just barely matching the number of new people who are now looking for work, whether new graduates, new Arizona residents or simply folks who have not been working — and therefore were not counted as “unemployed,’’ but decide now is a good time to start looking for a job.

It’s the number of jobs created — and not the unemployment rate — that Walls said provides a better indication of economic health.

He pointed out that private sector employment is up by 11,300 in the past month and by 79,000 in the past year. And year-overyear employment has now been in positive numbers for eight years, back into the administration of Gov. Jan Brewer.

Still, it’s hard for politicians to ignore — and not crow about when it goes down — a number that people understand.

“Just out: 3.7 percent unemployment is the lowest number since 1969,’’ President Trump tweeted out following the release of the national figures earlier this month.

And Ducey himself has used the number in campaign speeches, pronouncing as recently as last month that “the last time unemployment was this low, people were renting their videos from Blockbuster.’’

The disparity between job creation numbers and the jobless rate has to do with how the government collects the data.

One survey is of about a third of all Arizona employers: How many people do you have working for you? That includes full- and part-time workers. And it actually can count someone twice who has to work two jobs.

It’s that number that’s up by 11,300 last month.

The other checks in with about 1,200 households with two basic questions: Are you working and, if not, are you looking?

That second number becomes the number of unemployed, divided into the total workforce, meaning those working and those looking. After some seasonal adjustment to account for what normally occurs at certain times of the year, that produces the 4.7 percent jobless rate, the same figure as a year ago.

That disconnect between the household survey and employer survey appeared to some extent in Yuma County, too.

In Yuma County the unemployment rate, based on the phone survey, was reported at 19.1 percent for September, the first improvement since the rate started climbing in April. It peaked at 22.1 percent in August.

The September jobless rate was slightly higher than the 18.9 percent reported in September 2017.

However, the number of jobs reported by employers in the county increased by just 0.6 percent, or 300 positions.

Numerically, the sector with the biggest gain was state and local government with 300 jobs. Percentagewise, manufacturing got a 4.3 percent month-to-month boost, but in actual numbers the gain was 100.

Walls deflected a question of whether the statewide, higher-than-nationwide average rate is the “new normal’’ for Arizona, a state whose jobless rate was at 3.6 percent in 2007.

“It’s not that we’re stuck and not going anywhere,’’ he said. “We have to look and gauge other metrics in order to get the entire picture.’’

That includes the total number of people who are working, which shows jobs are being created.

“One indicator is not going to give you the entire picture,’’ Walls said.

In responding to the higher unemployment rate in Arizona, gubernatorial press aide Daniel Ruiz said the focus should be on those other numbers, like the year-over-year growth in employment.

There is another indicator, though.

Average hourly earnings last month in Arizona were $25.67, compared with $27.38 nationally. And one thing that affects earnings is demand: As the jobless rate declines, employers need to pay more to attract and retain talent.

The brightest spot in the economy continues to be the rapidly recovering construction industry. It tanked in the wake of the recession as the housing bubble burst, with employment going from 244,300 — one job out of every 11 in the state — to just 109,300.

Another 1,200 construction jobs were added in September, bringing yearover-year growth to 16,500. That means one out of every five jobs created in the past year was in construction.

But Walls said there is no reason to believe that Arizona will once again become overly dependent on construction jobs, which could dry up the next time the economy goes sour. He pointed out that total construction employment is 165,200, which is only two thirds of that 2006 peak.

Manufacturing employment also remains healthy, particularly in computer and electronic parts where employment is up 9.7 percent in the past year. And Walls said the state’s aerospace sector is also doing well.

At the other extreme, employment among retailers selling clothing and accessories shed another 1,000 jobs last month and remains below where it was a year ago. Walls said this industry is particularly susceptible to online competition.

At Yuma County’s Arizona@Work career centers, 3,434 job seekers visited during the month of September compared to 3,195 last year at the same time. ARIZONA@WORK — Yuma County posted 119 Staff Assisted job orders, said Patrick Goetz, employer engagement officer.

In early September the Community Job and Education Fair, hosted by Arizona@Work and a number of other agencies, attracted 1,740 job seekers. The job fair hosted over 100 employers and educators for that event.

Also, the City of San Luis and partnering agencies will be conducting a recruitment for several positions for the Piana Nonwovens V, LLC which will be located at the old Meadowcraft building. The recruitment is being held at the San Luis Library on Thursday October 25th from 9:00 am to 12:00 p.m.

On the downside, Yuma’s Sears store is scheduled to close in mid-January or sooner, following the Oct. 15 announcement that the parent corporation had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

And Statewide Express closed their doors on October 5th. No information was provided for the closure or how many employees were affected. Employees affected by this closure are encouraged to call (928) 3290990 for assistance or visit the ARIZONA@WORK Career Center located at 3826 West 16th St., in Yuma.