Record state voter turnout may hinder ballot measures

and initiatives is linked not to the number of people who live in Arizona, PHOENIX — That record or even to the number of number of Arizonans who people who have registered turned out to vote this year to vote. Instead the threshold has a dark side for direct is determined by how democracy: It’s going to be many voted in the most recent harder for voters to propose gubernatorial race. their own laws or get Four years ago, when rid of ones they don’t like. Doug Ducey won against

And that poses a threat to Democrat Fred DuVal and possible petition drives to a host of minor party candidates, ban “dark money,” increase the total votes in that education funding and find race were 1,506,416. more transportation dollars With a 10 percent requirement — as well as any voter-led for statutory effort to block an anticipated changes, that meant it took new bid by lawmakers to 150,642 signatures in 2016 expand vouchers. and this year to propose a

The problem is that state new law; a constitutional law bases the number of amendment, with a 15 percent signatures required for referenda mandate, was 225,963.

And members of Save Our Schools needed just 75,321 valid signatures — 5 percent — in their successful drive to let voters ratify or reject the measure approved by the Legislature and signed by Ducey to expand who can get vouchers of state dollars to attend private and parochial schools. The expansion was rejected on a 2-1 margin.

But here’s the thing: Andrew Chavez who owns Petition Partners, figures that the high turnout this year is going to sharply increase those numbers for ballot measures for 2020 and 2022. While a final count has not yet been released, he believes the final tally will come out close to 2.15 million.

That means the next time lawmakers approve an expansion of vouchers — and proponents already are talking about it — Save Our Schools would need close to 108,000 valid signatures to give voters the final say. Given the normal error rate, that means collecting more than 130,000 to ensure they have enough.

A new state law would require more than 215,000 valid signatures. And the entry fee, if you will, to get a constitutional proposal on the ballot will top 320,000. So how hard will that be? Chavez, who has been helping groups collect signatures for nearly two decades, said that depends.

He said the high turnout this year means a larger number of Arizonans are connected to and participating in politics, “not only at the ballot box but on the streets.”

“Now you have an engaged electorate where people on the ground know what’s going on,” he said.

“They look for ballot measures,” Chavez said. “They know about direct democracy.”

But there’s something else.

Petition Partners and other firms in the business charge based on the number of signatures collected. So Chavez figures anyone who wants to propose a ballot measure for 2020 and will need paid circulators is going to have to have access to more cash.

That, he said, is not a big deal for the special interests with money.

This year that included the Realtors funding Proposition 126 to ban expanding sales taxes to services and California billionaire Tom Steyer putting Proposition 127 and its renewable energy mandate on the ballot. Where it could make a difference is when groups who want voters to enact measure lawmakers refuse to take up don’t have deep pockets.