Record avalanche of early votes transforms election
More than 22 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2020 election, a recordshattering avalanche of early votes driven both by Democratic enthusiasm and a pandemic that has transformed the way the nation votes.
The 22.2 million ballots submitted as of Friday night represents 16% of all the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election, even as eight states are not yet reporting their totals and voters still have more than two weeks to cast ballots. Americans’ rush to vote is leading election experts to predict that a record 150 million votes may be cast and turnout rates could be higher than in any presidential election since 1908.
“It’s crazy,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who has long tracked voting for his site ElectProject.org. McDonald’s analysis shows roughly 10 times as many people have voted compared with this point in 2016.
“We can be certain this will be a high-turnout election,” McDonald said.
So far the turnout has been lopsided, with Democrats outvoting Republicans by a 2-1 ratio in the 42 states included in The Associated Press count. Republicans have been bracing themselves for this early Democratic advantage for months, as they’ve watched President Donald Trump rail against mail-in ballots and raise unfounded worries about fraud. Polling, and now early voting, suggest the rhetoric has turned his party’s rank and file away from a method of voting that, traditionally, they dominated in the weeks before Election Day.
That gives Democrats a tactical advantage in the final stretch of the campaign. In many critical battleground states, Democrats have “banked” a chunk of their voters and can turn their time and money toward harder-tofind infrequent voters.
But it does not necessarily mean Democrats will lead in votes by the time ballots are counted. Both parties anticipate a swell of Republican votes on Election Day that could, in a matter of hours, dramatically shift the dynamic.
“The Republican numbers are going to pick up,” said John Couvillon, a GOP pollster who is tracking early voting. “The question is at what velocity, and when?”
Couvillon said Democrats cannot rest on their voting lead, but Republicans are themselves making a big gamble. A number of factors, from rising virus infections to the weather, can impact in-person turnout on Election Day. “If you’re putting all your faith into one day of voting, that’s really high risk,” Couvillon said.
That’s why, despite Trump’s rhetoric, his campaign and party are encouraging their own voters to cast ballots by mail or early and in-person. The campaign, which has
of Trump’s reelection: 65% say divisions would worsen if the Republican president were reelected, a number that includes a quarter of his supporters.
Thirty-five percent of voters believe Biden would divide the country further should he win the presidency. More, 47%, think the country would be unified if the Democrat were elected.
“Somebody’s got to unite our country,” said Gary Conard, a 64-year-old Republican who lives in Clever, Missouri. “I just think our society is confused and in trouble.”
The poll offers a window into the depth of the division and chaos shaping the American electorate less than three weeks before Election Day. Voters are sharply divided over several major issues based on their partisan lenses, including their personal safety during the coronavirus pandemic, the value of diversity and the health of American democracy.
The cavernous rift represents a daunting challenge for the winner of the November election, as voters from each side seem to agree only on one thing: the extent of their divisions.
Fully 88% of Biden supporters and 80% of Trump supporters view Americans as greatly divided on important values. Supporters for both candidates think a win for the opposing side will worsen those divisions: 76% of Trump supporters say this of Biden, and 91% of Biden backers say this of Trump.
About half of all voters say that democracy in the United States is not working well, and about another third think it’s working only somewhat well. Roughly twice as many Biden supporters as Trump supporters have a pessimistic view of the health of democracy. Still, 3 in 10 Trump supporters say democracy isn’t working well. And at least 8 in 10 on both sides say the other candidate’s election would weaken democracy.
While Republicans fear the possibility of what Trump predicts without evidence will be a rigged election, Democrats are worried that inconsistent election laws, voter intimidation and Republican lawsuits will make it more difficult for their supporters to cast ballots given heightened health concerns during the pandemic.
The poll finds fewer than half of voters say they are highly confident that votes in the election will be counted accurately, but more Biden supporters than Trump supporters say that, 53% vs. 28%.
There also are dramatic differences in concerns about the pandemic – and views of Trump’s response to it – based on political leanings.
Nearly 6 in 10 Biden supporters report being very worried that they or someone in their family will be infected with the coronavirus, compared to just about 2 in 10 Trump supporters.
Close to half of Trump supporters say they are not worried.
Linda Railey, a 73-yearold Republican who lives in rural Alexander City, Alabama, said she’s not worried about the pandemic because she and her husband are taking precautions like washing their hands, limiting contact with other people and wearing masks when they are in public. They only go to the grocery store and church, she said.
“I worry about it for other people,” Railey said, noting that she lives in a rural area about 15 minutes outside the nearest town. “We stay home as much as we can.”
And as the nation struggles through intense clashes over civil rights, the poll highlights different views on the value of diversity.
Half of Trump supporters said that the nation’s diverse population “of many different races, ethnicities, religions, and backgrounds” makes the country stronger. About 3 in 10 Trump supporters said such diversity doesn’t strengthen or weaken the nation, while about 2 in 10 say it makes the country weaker.
Among Biden supporters, 75% believe that diversity makes the country stronger.
Overall, Biden has an advantage over Trump as the candidate trusted to handle the coronavirus pandemic (52% to 28%), race relations (53% to 28%) and Supreme Court nominations (45% to 34%). Biden and Trump are competitive on the economy, gaining the trust of 43% and 42%, respectively. But each camp overwhelmingly trusts its own candidate over the other to handle key issues.
Noah Talbott, a 22-yearold unaffiliated voter who lives outside Richmond, Virginia, and works at Chick-fil-A, criticized Trump’s leadership on several issues and blamed him for exacerbating political and racial divisions.
“I wouldn’t say I’m proud to be an American right now,” he said. “We’re way too divided.”
Talbott didn’t vote four years ago but said he would vote for Biden this fall – a decision he described as “more of a vote against Trump” than for his Democratic challenger.
For all their differences, the poll found that both Biden and Trump supporters are about equally engaged in the campaign.
Conard, of Missouri, said he doesn’t see an end to the divisions plaguing America, but he said it’s in Trump’s best interests to unify the nation. He plans to vote for the president on Election Day, believing that Biden has already had a chance after spending almost a half-century in Washington.
“One man had 47 years and he didn’t get it done so you’ve got to look somewhere else,” Conrad said. “Trump wants the country to do well. For it to do well and for him to look good, he’s got to bring people together. And he can do it – at least, I hope he can.”