Number of available hospital beds are low across the state

there were 73 COVID-positive patients in the hospital and 14 more with test results pending.

At the Verde Valley Medical Center, Ron Haase, the chief administrative officer, said this past week it was just eight beds away from its previous high critical care capacity. “And a further spike would really put us in a tough spot.’’

Canyon Vista Medical Center in Sierra Vista is treating a dozen COVID patients, which spokeswoman Valerie Weller called a “significant jump’’ from a few weeks ago. She said though, the hospital still has ICU capacity and “we never turn people away.’’

And the Mt. Graham Regional Medical Center, with its own limited capacity and currently 13 COVID-19 patients, never went back to elective surgeries even after Ducey lifted the ban effective May 1.

At the moment, the Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association does not see a need for a limit on elective procedures – the ones that bring in the most net revenues --even with just 175 intensive-care beds available in the whole state out of 1,727.

Spokeswoman

Holly

Ward said what’s happen

ing now is different from earlier this year. At that point, she said, the concern was running out of personal protective equipment like masks and gowns.

“Things have evolved,’’ she said, with no shortage of those items. “We’ve adapted quite a bit.’’

Bed capacity aside, Ward also said a $25 million infusion of federal dollars by Ducey will help ensure there is sufficient staff to handle any surges, whether to hire additional help if it is available or simply to raise compensation for existing workers.

Anyway, Ward said, individuals hospitals are used to dealing with issues of capacity on a regular basis, even when there is not a pandemic.

But the data from both ASU and IHME suggest the rising trend is more than just routine with the projections that in the bestcase scenario – meaning no boost in infection rates from travel – hospitals will reach general bed capacity at the end of the year and ICU limits by Jan. 11.

The ASU report suggests it makes no sense to refuse to put mitigation strategies in place, saying all that is doing is avoiding the inevitable once the capacity limits are reached.

“Additional emergency public health interventions will be necessary to control transmission and preserve health care capacity in Arizona,’’ it says. That specifically includes a statewide mask mandate, preventing gatherings of more than 10 people, closing bards, and further decreasing capacity restrictions at restaurants along with “effective enforcement.’’

IHME looks at the surge through different metrics.

It projects that deaths in Arizona will peak at about 112 a day by mid-January – close to triple what it has been running – if nothing changes. By contrast, its researchers figure that a statewide mask mandate could cut that peak to less than 70.

Ducey has argued such an order is unnecessary, saying that local ordinances cover about 90% of the state population. And Daniel Scarpinato, his chief of staff, said the governor has given them full authority to enforce that mandate within their own jurisdictions.

But the Democrat mayors of four cities with their own mandates say that

isn’t enough if people can travel into their communities from unmasked areas.

They also want mandatory testing of inbound travelers at the state’s three major airports along with a quarantine for those who test positive. Ducey instead is offering voluntary testing, with Scarpinato saying the governor presumes that those who get positive results will voluntarily agree not to go out.

“We review all models presented to us, including ones presented by federal partners and universities as well as other public modeling sources,’’ said Steve Elliott, spokesman for the Arizona Department of Health Services. But he said his agency said they are not the last word.

“Some of the modeling predictions we’ve seen over time have not been borne out by the actual data,’’ Elliott said, saying the main focus is analyzing the “real-time data reported to the department,’’ which includes daily testing results, hospitalizations and deaths. He said those metrics are “a good indicator of potential future trends.’’