Somerton fears drop in revenue due to Census
SOMERTON – “How could that have happened?”
That was the question posed by Carmen Juarez, Somerton’s community development director, at a recent city council session, in response to the 2020 Census that showed Somerton losing population – contrary to expectations of city officials.
According to the Census, the city dropped by 90 residents, to 14,197, and city officials are concerned that that decline could bring about a corresponding drop of 13% in state-shared revenues.
City officials have said the number of building permits issued by the city and the number of new utility hookups in Somerton indicate the population has grown since the 2010 count.
They contend the city’s residents were undercounted by about 4,000. And state demographers likewise estimated the population at 18,100 as of July 2020.
“It wasn’t exactly what we expected,” Juarez said in a presentation recently to the city council as it considered how to go about challenging the Census count.
“We not only didn’t grow but we lost residents,” she added. “How could that have happened?”
Somerton City Administrator Jerry Cabrera said that based on the Census tally, the city could see a 13% drop in revenues that the state shares with cities based on their populations.
Among state-shared revenues are portions of proceeds from taxes on fuel sales and vehicle registrations. If Somerton is unable to challenge the Census tally, it would see a reduction in those funds beginning in the new fiscal year that starts July 1.
“It would be a very significant loss of revenue,” Juarez said. “We would have to make sure that residents were aware of that and aware that it could impact the level of services they receive.”
The council asked Cabrera to prepare a more detailed report of the financial impacts for review at a future session.
Somerton is among 10 cities around the state in which the 2020 Census showed declines in population since 2010.
Mayor Gerardo Anaya predicted the city will be able to prove
Somerton’s population has increased.
“All the data we have indicates we have grown, and we can prove it,” he said in an interview. “We have proof in the number of building permits, in the number of homes built in new subdivisions,” he said. “There are new schools that were approved because we have enough population, including a new high school. So that (Census count) was ridiculous.”
He said a number of other small cities around Arizona face consequences similar to Somerton as a result of undercounts.
“We depend more than other communities on the funds the state shares with us, because we don’t have as much sales tax revenue,” Anaya said. “We are looking at a difficult situation.”
Juarez said the city could file an appeal of the Census tally in January, or it could seek a mid-decade count in 2025 at a cost of several million dollars to the city.
The third option would be to request that the state calculate Somerton’s share of funds not on the Census numbers but on the state’s own population estimate.
The council postponed a decision pending the review by the city administration of the impacts of the 2020 count.