The 2017/2018 Dry Spells: Should Zambia Panic?

Introduction

The dry spell experienced in January 2018, mostly in the southern parts of the country, is generating anxiety in the country and raising fears that Zambia might be food insecure in 2018. These concerns are largely directed towards the southern regions of the country, that is,Western, Southern, Lusaka and some parts of Eastern and Central Provinces. Some stakeholders contend that there will significant reductions in maize availability in the 2018 marketing season, and argue in this regard, that Zambia is headed for a disaster. Yet there is a high likelihood that the northern parts of Zambia are poised for a good harvest.The uncertainty about the upcoming harvest may lead to decisions that are not backed by empirical evidence or at best based on partial information leading to negative agricultural and economic outcomes. Against this background, IAPRI has continued to assess the situation taking into account various factors including current maize stocks vis-à-vis consumption requirements, the rainfall patterns, and the regional situation in order to provide relevant evidence-based recommendations. However, it is important to note that the Crop Forecast Survey (CFS) conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) in conjunction with the Central Statistical Office (CSO) around March of every year, after most rain fed crops have achieved physiological maturity, will provide a more accurate position on expected maize production in the country. Outside the CFS, IAPRI produced indicative maize crop production scenarios for the 2018 marketing season using rainfall forecasts from the Meteorological Department and past CFS maize production data. Results generated provide more empirically grounded information to guide policy discussions to avoid knee-jerk policy decisions. Our conclusion based on this comprehensive analysis suggests that, there is no need to panic because the country is likely to remain food secure given the current maize stocks, and that national maize production is projected to only marginally reduce. However, areas hardest hit by the dry spell, may require some buffer maize stocks to improve accessibility and that some households may need to be assisted through cash transfers due to crop failure.

Data and Methodology

In order to estimate the percentage decrease in maize production in 2017/18, we utilized historical crop production data from crop forecast surveys for the period 2010/11 to 2016/17 as well as the January to March 2018 rainfall forecast data from the Meteorological Department. With regards to maize production, we computed average maize production from years when the agricultural season was considered normal. We excluded the recent past production forecast mainly because the production was highest in the history of Zambia. In addition, we excluded the 2015/16 season in computing the average maize production because it was an El Nino year. In other words, we excluded outliers in order not to skew the results. In terms of the rainfall forecast, we grouped the districts into three rainfall forecast classes (normal, above normal and below normal) based on the Meteorological Department data (see Maps 1-3). The first step was to classify districts based on rainfall received in January and forecasts in February and March (Table A1). Twenty seven possible rainfall combinations were obtained and classified into four production classes, severe, near severe, moderate and normal production. The second step involved coming up with possible scenarios depending on this classification and projected maize production level for 2018 (Table 1). For simplicity, we defined four (4) 2017/18 maize production scenarios/projections based on recent past drought experiences in the 2001/02, 2004/05, 2012/13 and 2015/16 agricultural seasons where Zambia experienced a decline in production.The four projected scenarios are summarized in Table 1, Columns C to F. Conclusions in this brief are based on these results. However, it is important to note that, these results are only indicative as they provide empirically based guidance to the current maize production debate but the only official estimates of 2017/18 production will be announced by the Ministry of Agriculture after the CFS. Results

Projected 2017-18 Maize Production

Although it may be premature to be definitive about the 2017/18 level of maize production, the indication is that the country is not going to be food insecure as predicted by some. However, localized food insecurity may exist especially in the southern parts of the country where the dry spell was severe. The current rainfall forecast if realized may help farmers who planted their maize late. Table 2 shows the contribution to national maize production by District classification, which we will call a production scenario. It is very important to note that most of the districts under moderate reduction and normal production are in the northern parts of Zambia (Table A1 and Maps 1-3). Essentially, maize production in Zambia has significantly shifted during the last decade from the traditional maize belt areas of Southern, Central and Eastern provinces to the new maize belt of the high rainfall areas of Copperbelt, Luapula, Northern and Muchinga provinces. In order to help put the food security situation into perspective, one needs to look at different scenarios; the worst case scenario, the near severe case scenario, moderate case scenario and best case scenario as outlined in Table 1. The worst case scenario is highly unlikely because we assumed that there will be a total maize loss (no production) in the most severe districts. With the northern parts of the country poised to harvest a normal crop, Zambia’s maize production decline could range between 17.6 and 29.8 percent, with 29.8 percent being the worst case scenario, 23.4 percent as the moderate case and, 17.6 percent as the best case scenario. Based on these conservative estimates, maize production in 2018 could range between 2.06 million and 2.42 million Mt (Table 2).With projected carryover stocks of 750,000 Mt, the total available maize stocks in 2017/18 marketing season could range between 2.81 million and 3.17 million metric tonnes. Nevertheless, this analysis is preliminary and will be updated once the results of the CFS and the National Food Balance Sheet are finalized in May 2018. Notes: *Projected carryover stocks as at May 2018 is based on reported country’s stock levels on January 25th 2018 from Food Reserve Agency, Grain Traders Association of Zambia (GTAZ) and Millers Association of Zambia (MAZ). This estimate excludes stocks held by members of the Zambia National Farmers Union, retention by smallholder households and stocks from non-members of GTAZ and MAZ.

Conclusions & Recommendations

Using the best available production historical data, rainfall forecasts from the Zambia Metrological Department, and consultations with stakeholders in the field, there is no need to panic, as the country is likely to have adequate stocks for local consumption and a modest surplus for export. Maize production in Zambia has significantly shifted duringthe last decade with the traditional maize belt areas (Southern, Central and Eastern provinces) contributing less than 30 percent to the total maize produced and the new maize belt (the high rainfall areas of Copperbelt, Luapula, Northern and Muchinga) contributing more than 45% to the total maize produced). Therefore, The Ministry of Agriculture should deliberately implement policies that encourage public and private investments that are in line with the shift in the rainfall belt. The country should learn from the 2016/17 season where there was a ban on maize exports amidst a huge carryover stock and a good harvest. This resulted in a huge reduction in maize prices and disadvantaged farmers who produced a surplus. Instead, what the country needs is a predictable policy environment that creates incentives for all participants to plan and take advantage of the opportunities in the maize sector. It is very important that the private sector takes leadership in both the import and export market whilst the Government concentrates on facilitation and regulatory issues rather than performing a direct marketing function which crowds out private sector investments in the maize sector. It is therefore, imperative that the Agricultural Marketing Act be urgently reviewed to guide the sector. The Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, the Ministry of Community Development, and the FRA need to continue coordinating interventions such as the distribution of relief maize and the social cash transfers to areas that need it most. Last but not least, with the recurrent dry spells that the country has been experiencing, it has become absolutely important that Zambia seriously puts in place policies that will lead to increased government and private sector investments in appropriate irrigation facilities catering for different types of farmers (i.e. small, medium and large-scale).