CAN WE START ‘A PROMOTE ZAMBIA DAY’ EVERY MONTH

THE past two years have been full of constant turmoil in the domestic and global economy while the recent events are hailing a mild expansion in our economy and calls for all citizenry to breathe a sigh of relief and go about their day to day business in a reasonably reassuring economic environment.

Instead of writing an analytical profile and envisioning a world where we have more people that embrace more optimism, instead of sitting idly wondering why we don’t push our case as certain nations do. Instead of imagining, a nation that is less fixated on what ails us rather than what stands on the shore, instead of a focus on our internal and external risks, I want to walk readers through the interesting pile of evidence that indicates that we can plan beyond the medium term with clarity.

In the past couple of weeks, we have seen a rating organisation put a stamp of approval on the current direction of the economy and most economic indicators seem to be holding promise. The exchange rate has in the past year posted a stable performance with inflation at the lowest it has ever been in a long time and the Bank of Zambia continue to target medium-term inflation levels that are consistent with the current inflationary performance.

The assessment in the crude oil market is that in the medium term there is an increased expectation of price stability given the prospects of increased crude oil output based on increased nonOPEC Oil Rig constructions in the United States. This should help to tamper down one of the key drivers of our inflation expectation.

In terms of copper prices, the forecast is now that we could potentially cross the $8, 000 per tonne psychological target amidst a growing supply gap. This is despite low speculative interest in copper futures, which suggests a medium to long-term surge. This should moderate the risk of inflation rising in the medium term.

Our power generating capacity has significantly improved to an almost marginal deficit. The bullet we bit on the electricity tariffs means that interest to invest in energy in Zambia is at its highest.

If the Greenfield projects under construction such as 750MW at Kafue Gorge Lower Hydropower are completed on time and the construction can start for the 2, 400MW Batoka Projects, there is much to hope for in the energy sector in the long to medium term.

Everywhere one looks, there is a strong case that the Zambian economy is showing some resurgence, and it remains within all of us to become morale boosters, by singing these songs regularly and often, to generate the vibe of confidence in the economy.

It is so self-evident that in all walks of life, whether it is, personal or business, that confidence is a precursor to success. Similarly, in the case of an economy, confidence in the economy by consumers as well as the investor is what drives investment and in turn productivity and growth.

It is therefore important as the citizenry that in whatever field we are, in whatever activities we are engaged in, that we help build the confidence in the economy and we will, in turn, build sustainable opportunities for growth.

The panacea of growth for any economy lies not all only in macro fundamentals but in the morale boosters that are willing to promote their side with carefree induction.

It is even more clear when we consider economies such as those subsisting in Bermuda, in Caymans, Singapore, Seychelles, etc., nothing has kept those economies afloat, other than business houses, private individuals, politicians willing to use every conceivable opportunity available to market those territories, whether it be as a tourist destination or as places investment engines of growth.

We have noted that companies of foreign origins are emerging, managing to successfully navigate our terrain and continually investing in their operations and generating good returns on their capital investments in comparison to other African markets.

They do not invest here because they do not want the capital, they invest here because that is where the massive amount of opportunities abound. We just need to look.

Imagine these statistics reported recently by African Business Magazine in its article of 3 March 2017 that during the recent economic downturn, African brands have regressed against non-African brands, with their share declining from 24 percent, 25 percent and 23 percent in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively to only 16 percent in 2017.

It also noted that Non-African brands, on the other hand, continue to grow and now represent an all-time high of 84 percent of the Top 100 most Admired Brands and account for 99.25 percent of the value of the Top 100 Most Valuable Brands in Africa.

Why is that? It perhaps speaks to the foreign brands quiet belief in our economies while we grumble, while we miss the upsurge. And when they succeed, our nationalistic sentiments seem to attribute that to an invisible hand that is helping them. This is in most cases further from the truth.

Most developed markets have in the first instance a large number of citizens that are their own cheerleaders. That is how Alibaba grew, from its own citizenry first having confidence in that medium, that is how Nigeria has remained resilient from external risks because its own citizens living abroad have been repatriating money back to their country in mass.

What is the lesson in all this? We cannot build a strong economy if we are not positively promoting our own.

We must not only speak loudly when the economy slumps but also when it shows signs of growth and at the end that is what builds confidence in the economy. It is more so for those that have large networks, whether on the social media or other platforms, find a way to promote this country. Every positive narrative we give it will shrink any negative coverage there is.

If we step back, notice how many people wanted to watch the Black Panther in Zambia and we were the people spreading the message. It is easy to see that social media sold the Black Panther at least in Zambia. Why not for our country with its vast opportunities?

Let’s step back and imagine the impact of this statistics on Western Investors as reported by Business News in a March 2017 article titled Infrastructure investment attracts business to Africa.

In it, a Mr. Bennet Kpentey, Chief Executive and Managing Consultant at Ghanaian-based Sync Consult Management Consultants is noted as saying that “while Africa’s rapid urbanisation presented infrastructure challenges for its major cities, this was also a sign of a prospering continent.

Africa has a young population with a growing labour force and is expected to have the world’s largest working-age population of 1.1 billion by 2034. Household consumption in Africa grew at a 4.2 percent compound annual rate between 2010 and 2015”

Imagine also that McKinsey Global Institute forecasts Africa’s household consumption will reach US$ 1.4 trillion by 2020 and US$2 trillion by 2025, while the African Development Bank predicts that by 2060, about 1.1 billion Africans will be in the middle-class.

These sentiments suggest that foreign Investors are looking to Africa to reap the benefits that come with these statistics and unless we are bullish about our own economies, investors will choose other countries whose citizens are more involved in sounding a better tune for their country. Where am I going with this? We have grown up in an era where Africa was defined as a dark continent, in an era where a large population of western adults grew up listening to and watching unfavourable information about Africa, and regrettably a lot have grown up believing those adverse views. And so we must try not to sing those songs that make them believe that it is still all true.

Having noted that, there are various organisations elsewhere that are taking the initiative and promoting a more inviting Africa. An Africa ready to engage, an Africa that has come of age.

Those investments in the promotion of Africa are bearing fruit as evidenced by the ever-increasing foreign direct investments that are destined for Africa. However, there is a catch, more countries in Africa are looking for those same investments and more countries are much more bullish about their prospects and in the end because we tend not to, we lose out on the allocations. We would lose out on the investment allocation because our own confidence in our markets tends to let us down.

In a 1993 article ‘Consumer confidence: does it lead or lag the economy?’ by Jean Kinsey (1993), in it, Jean Kinsey (1993) noted that “When consumer confidence falls, the business community grows nervous. But when consumers report feeling good about their own and the nation’s economic well-being, sales are expected to rise, stimulating employment and economic growth.”

We do have long to go before we can overcome the inherent risks that our economy is bound to encounter, but If we agree that the recent commodity price challenges are now in our rear view, that the exchange rate volatility is now a thing of the past, we can see the hallmark to drive our future.

When we as citizens can see the positive aspects of our economy and help repackage our country to those seeking to invest, as a suitable destination for investments, even with a small platform, we will be the catalyst in enabling an environment that we seek to create.

With that in mind, next week I will be writing about the African Inspiration Art Event to be held between April 6th to April 15th 2018 at the Lusaka Golf Club, alongside the ZANACO Masters International Golf Tournament. In the meantime, I want to suggest, Can we start a promote Zambia Once a month day theme on social media.

*About the author: Kelvin Chungu is an Assurance and Advisory professional and can be contacted on +260976377484.