41 Million Kenyans To Get COVID-19, Over 620,000 To Die - Projection
Experts estimate that 41 million Kenyans will catch Covid-19 and of these 620,000 will die.
Kenyans have slowly begun drifting into a balloon of ignorance where they hide in denial of the current crisis with most of them staying away from news so as not to know the COVID-19 situation in the current.
Researchers caution against easing the current restrictions without proper interventions.
Up to 41 million Kenyans could be infected and more than 620,000 die with Covid-19 by January in the worst-case scenario, University of Nairobi researchers predict.
But with the current rate of infection and restrictions of movement and closure of schools, nearly 32 million people will be infected with 479, 848 dying.
The study was conducted before April 6, when President Uhuru Kenyatta enforced travel bans into and out of four hotspot counties and enacted other measures to contain the virus.
It means that with the current measures the higher rates of infection projected by UoN’s department of microbiology are highly unlikely.
Prof Omu Anzala, a researcher on the Kenya AIDS Vaccine Initiative (Kavi) team presented the projections before the Senate Committee on Covid-19 Situation on Thursday.
“The model assumes uniform transmission throughout the however, with intensive preventive measures it would be possible to prevent transmission in particular regions,” Anzala said.
Prof Anzala said that by mid- September, at least 5,551,243 people will have been infected with mild or asymptomatic cases. Some 786,344 will be moderate and 241,360 others will be severe cases in the worst- case scenario.
Last week, acting director general for Health Patrick Amoth said that the county will hit its peak in August-September going by the current rate of infection.
The UoN researchers projected that by the September peak, the country will require 786,344 hospital beds, with 241,360 with ventilators in the worst case.
But at the current projection, 355,909 beds will be required with 114, 740 in ICU with ventilators.
Nairobi will require 4,420 ICU beds and 13,711 hospital beds, Kericho will require 6,585 ICU beds and 20,424 hospital beds, and Kiambu will need 3,325 ICU beds and 10,315 hospital beds.
The researchers listed 15 counties that are likely to have extreme or severe cases that may require special attention from the government.
These are Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Machakos, Nakuru, Kakamega, Siaya, Murang’a, Homa Bay, Kitui, Makueni, Kisumu, Kilifi, Bungoma, and Nyeri.
Out of the 15, 3 – Nairobi, Kiambu and Meru are at the highest risk.
The 15 counties are estimated to consume 57 per cent of the national requirements for management of severe cases.
Prof Anzala said that the current testing does not give a clear picture of the extent of the spread of the disease in the country. It is not targeted and spread across all the 47 counties through proper sampling, he said.
He cautioned the government against easing the current restrictions without proper interventions in place to curb the spread of the virus.
“Regardless of economic impact, regardless of all these things we are saying, decisions to open or not to open or the stages of how we shall open must be informed by science,” he said.Kenya, as of 29th May 2020 has 1,618 confirmed COVID-19 cases and has tested a total of 70,172 samples since it reported the first case on 13th March 2020.