‘Zambia’s GDP will rebound’
ZAMBIA’S Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rebound to a growth of 2.8 percent in 2021 despite suffering a worst set back this year in over 25 years due to the Covid-19 related impact.
This is according to the latest Zanaco quarterly report which indicated the Covid-19 pandemic would sink Zambia’s 2020 GDP growth to its worst in over 25 years. Zanaco was however confident that growth would rebound to a growth of 2.8 percent next year. “We expect the positive momentum of copper prices to continue due to good news regarding Covid-19 vaccine with the Oxford team already in the final stages of human trials,” the report said. In the first quarter, Zanaco had estimated that Covid-19 pandemic would be controlled by end of June and consequently, projected a moderate growth of 0.7 percent for this year. It however indicated that with a resurgence in pandemic cases in the country, the outlook now looks gloomier than it was projected. “Given the foregoing, it was now projecting that Zambia would record a recession of negative 2.4 percent in 2020. “Although our GDP growth forecast for 2020 will be the worst in 25 years, it is still more optimistic than the negative 5.2 percent and negative 3.0 percent projected respectively by International Monetary Fund and Bloomberg consensus but more pessimistic than the negative 0.8 per cent being seen by the World Bank,” the report said. Zanaco said growth in 2020 stems from both domestic and global factors, stating that globally, central banks and governments have put in place stimulus packages, which in turn have put copper prices, Zambia’s major export on a positive trend. This has sent net exports to a positive trajectory. According to the latest Zambia Statistics Agency monthly report, Zambia’s trade surplus widened 72.2 percent in May 2020 thereby stretching a trade surplus run to three months.
“We expect the positive momentum of copper prices to continue due to good news regarding Covid-19 vaccine with the Oxford team already in the final stages of human trials,”