HOW TRUMP 'BETRAYED' ETHIOPIA OVER NILE DAM
...marks the biggest diplomatic failure of his administration in Africa.
FOR critics of US President Donald Trump, escalating tensions between two long-standing American allies, Egypt and Ethiopia, over a mega dam on a tributary of the River Nile marks the biggest diplomatic failure of his administration in Africa.
Mr Trump said last week that Egypt might "blow up" the Ethiopian-built dam, despite boasting in January that he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize because he had "made a deal".
"I saved a big war. I've saved couple of them," he said, shortly after Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abi Ahmed was awarded the prize.
Mr Trump's comments were vague, but seemed to be a reference to his intervention - at the request of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, whom he once reportedly called his "favourite dictator" - to resolve the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd).
Egypt sees the dam as an "existential threat" to its survival, a concern shared, albeit to a lesser extent, by Sudan. Ethiopia, on the other hand, regards the dam as vital for its energy needs.
Trump a 'hate figure for Ethiopians'
Kenya-based Horn of Africa security analyst Rashid Abdi said US mediation over the dam had worsened tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia.
"Ethiopia is stepping up security around the dam," Mr Abdi said.
"Its defensive measures include declaring the Benishangul-Gumuz region, where the dam is located, a restricted airspace, and there are also reports that Ethiopia is putting up anti-aircraft batteries around the dam. It probably fears reconnaissance flights by Egypt."
He said this showed Mr Trump’s failure to understand how global diplomacy worked.
“He has this misconceived notion that you can cut a deal like in business. So he left the US Treasury to play the lead role in negotiations, when foreign policy is supposed to be conducted by the State Department. The consequences have been to aggravate an already bad situation,” Mr Abdi added. Accusing Ethiopia of negotiating in bad faith following its decision to press ahead with filling the dam before addressing Egypt’s and Sudan’s concerns about the flow of water to their countries, the US has decided to cut a reported $100m ($$77m) in aid to Ethiopia - Africa’s second most-populous state, and a key US ally in the fight against militant Islamists in the volatile Horn of Africa.
“Ethiopia feels betrayed by America, and Trump is now a hate-figure for many Ethiopians,” Mr Abdi said, adding that they would be hoping for a Joe Biden victory in the 3 November presidential election.
W Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the US-based Center for Global Development, said the Trump’s administration decision to side with Egypt was not surprising as its most prized international goal was rapprochement between Israel and Arab League nations.
Trump’s diplomatic coup As Egypt had long-standing diplomatic relations with Israel, the Trump administration was not going to antagonise it at a time when it needed Mr Sisi’s help to lobby other Arab states to recognise Israel, Mr Moore said.
Tensions with China
For Mr Abdi, a further concern about the effects of Mr Trump’s policies on Africa was “the new Cold War” between the US and China.
One example was the fact that China has put up its first foreign military base in Djibouti, near the American base used for air strikes against militant Islamists in Somalia, the focal point of its counter-terrorism operations in Africa, and Yemen.
‘Undermining’ the African Union
The Trump administration has also decided to scrap the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) when it expires in 2025. It was the signature Africa policy of US Democratic President Bill Clinton, and gives African states preferential access to the US market.
Mr Moore said the administration’s focus was on bilateral trade deals, and it is already in talks with Kenya - the economic powerhouse of East Africa which is part of Chi
na’s Belt and Road Initiative that the US believes is aimed at building a series of trade routes that will link the Asian giant with Africa, thereby strengthening its global dominance.