‘Airlines will feel the pain of Covid-19 for years’
JOHANNESBURG - The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and related lockdowns and travel bans have likely set back growth in air passenger numbers by two to three years, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The airline body represents about 290 airlines comprising 82 percent of global air traffic.
"The damage of the Covid-19 crisis will be felt for years to come, but all indications are that people have retained their need and desire to travel," IATA Director General Willie Walsh said during an online briefing on Wednesday.
IATA's research indicates that people remain eager to travel in the short and long-term. Any possibility for borders to re- open is met with an instant surge in bookings.
According to Walsh, the aviation crisis is currently not caused as much by the health pandemic as due to government restrictions on international travel.
"We are optimistic that when restrictions are relaxed or removed, we will see a swift bounce back in terms of demand," said Walsh.
IATA forecasts that by 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion – seven percent below its pre-Covid-19 forecast.
In 2021 global air passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52 percent of pre-Covid-19 - therefore 2019 - levels, IATA's chief economist Brian Pearce said during the briefing. In 2022 global air passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88 percent of pre-Covid-19 levels and in 2023 to surpass pre-Covid-19 levels.
Pearce expects that aviation in different markets will recover at different paces depending on restrictions, vaccination, and individual governments' risk-aversion.
Regions with large domestic markets - like Asia Pacific and North America - will recover first, with those in Africa, Europe and the Middle East expected to lag.
According to Walsh, the immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination or testing certificates. At the same time, he says aviation's long-term growth prospects must be supported with a commitment to sustainability.