ROUGH GUIDE FOR RUTO:
....How previous Presidents handled political battles with Raila Odinga
NAIROBI - Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s current political battle with President William Ruto mirrors his past duels with three other heads of state, with important historical lessons as the country’s focus remains firmly on the anticipated negotiations.
Some of the face-offs with the opposition leader were so fiery that incumbents opted to unleash brute force against him.
He was tortured, jailed and in some instances forced to flee from the country during the Kanu regime of Daniel Toroitich arap Moi, who was president from August 1978 to December 2002.
Interestingly, all his differences with presidents Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta ended in political rapprochement that took place when the three were in their final terms in office.
Some of the circumstances for the deals were different but observers reckon that Odinga has managed to create an environment of intense political pressure, forcing the previous administrations to strike deals with him.
Dr Ruto’s administration has since extended an olive branch to allow for bipartisan talks with the opposition Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition.
But even before the talks can kick off, the two sides have started trading accusations and sharply disagreed on the format the negotiations should take.
Some of the previous administrations co-opted Odinga into what were later perceived to be part of their plans to manage their succession.
Moi and Kenyatta unsuccessfully attempted to manage their political transitions by having Odinga in their fold during their final years in office.
Some of the obstacles the current push for truce is facing have been linked to the hardliners in Ruto’s camp, who feel they would be edged out should Odinga have a deal with the new administration.
Ruto also sees Odinga as a potential challenger in his 2027 re-election bid and would not want to risk his chances by giving him a platform for relevance.
Commentators believe Ruto also fears losing some of his allies who backed him should he entertain a deal with Odinga.
“The Kanu-National Development Party (Odinga’s party) merger deal in 2002 was initially part of Moi’s plans to change the constitution to allow him to run for another term. The deal was for Raila (Odinga) to be a Prime Minister and Moi continuing as President,” says Professor Macharia Munene of the unlikely political deal where the cockerel (the Kanu symbol) was said to have swallowed the tractor (the NDP symbol).
“The problem was that the changes were not effected and President Moi saw no need of assisting Odinga to ascend to power. Odinga had also thought that by being Kanu secretary-general he would inherit the Kanu machinery to help him with the elections that were held later that year.”
Prof Munene observes that for the ceasefire to take place, it cannot be ruled out that there could be a condition - mostly spoken behind closed doors - that Odinga backs Ruto’s re-election.
This will even be more pragmatic should there be a feeling that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua could fall out of favour before the next election - a proposition that does not seem likely at the moment in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
“President Ruto may look for a different person (with a strong political base) to support him and that person could be Raila,” he says.
Similar perceptions were there in the run up to the August 2022 elections. Allies of Ruto believe that the decision by Kenyatta to enter a truce with Odinga in March 2018 was part of a larger scheme to block his then deputy president from getting into State House.
Kenyatta had promised to back Ruto for his presidential bid when they were campaigning for re-election in 2017 but opted to support Odinga.
This followed a bitter fallout with his deputy after the famous March 2018 handshake.
Says Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa: “Uhuru supported Raila not because he liked him. He thought he was the only person that could have blocked Ruto from ascending to power. The handshake was not for Raila to benefit but to ensure Ruto did not become president.”
National Assembly Minority Leader, Opiyo Wandayi, says the circumstances for the agitation may be different but issues being advanced by Odinga remain the same and are touching on good governance and well-being of the common person.
Change tact
“No regime enters into talks with the opposition willingly. The conditions and circumstances force them to do so. It is not different with Kenya Kwanza government. Despite the chest-thumping, inwardly they know they cannot sustain the conflict therefore they are forced to negotiate,” says Wandayi.
“On our part, we are willing to talk on condition that every card is put on top of the table. Unlike them, we are not limited with options to deal with the situation.”
But Owen Baya, the Deputy Majority Leader in the National Assembly, told the Sunday Nation that Ruto would not entertain Odinga’s personal interests.
“In all these agitations that he started with President Moi, the country only ended up taking the interests of one person. We have made it clear that this time we are going to handle issues, not personal interests, and that is why the talks will be held in Parliament,” says Baya.
Since President Moi’s administration, Odinga’s influence has significantly grown, something that has made subsequent governments change tact in dealing with him.
It was only during President Moi’s time, under the dictatorial one-party rule, that he was arrested in the 1980s.
The subsequent administrations, including that of Mwai Kibaki and Kenyatta, did not consider the route even when Odinga swore himself in as the people’s president in January 2018, an act that was largely considered treasonable by some in the government.
Some of Ruto’s allies have in the height of the now suspended bi-weekly mass action asked police to arrest Odinga.
Cooler heads in the ruling coalition, however, believe taking this route could exacerbate the current political standoff.
“Only a fool can think of arresting Raila. All the tactics that Moi used cannot apply now because some of the laws that he exploited are not there. I am certain that the current talks have to continue because there is no option,” says Herman Manyora, an analyst whose views often lean towards the opposition leader
“The Ruto administration must be aware now it cannot succeed in using brute force against Raila. Whatever name - whether handshake or bipartisan talks - it has to work for the interest of the country.”
As part of the “Young Turks” in the agitation for multiparty democracy, Odinga led the likes of Paul Muite, Peter Anyang Nyong’o, Gitobu Imanyara, James Orengo, Njeru Kathangu and Kiraitu Murungi in threatening Moi’s stranglehold on power in the early 1990s.
This prompted Moi to unleash torture and brutality on his opponents before allowing multiparty democracy in 1991. Years earlier, President Moi’s use of force became apparent after the attempted 1982 coup that marked Odinga’s years in detention.
Moi’s regime would charge Odinga with treason. The State later withdrew the charges but still kept him in custody.
He was re-arrested in August 1988, spending 10 days at Nyayo House torture chambers. Odinga would again become a guest of the state on July 5, 1990, two days before the Saba Saba rally that the government declined to permit, until June 1991.
“Moi was liberal until after the 1982 attempted coup. He opted to use force against his opponents. There were assassinations. At some point, he changed tact and resorted to buying out opponents as a way of dealing with his opponents,” says lawyer Danstan Omari.
Omari says the rule of law and constitutionalism that came in with the Kibaki regime, which is undergirded by the 2010 constitution, has made it difficult for the subsequent administrations to unleash force in dealing with political opponents. – DAILY NATION, Kenya.