Islamist militants threaten Sadc stability
AFRICA’S bastion of political stability and security, the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) is witnessing an increase in armed conflict. Analysts say in addition to the threat to human life, livelihoods and infrastructure, the growing instability provides some interest groups with a glimmer of hope to achieve a long-cherished dream to set up shop in Southern Africa.
The possibility, analysts say, of external interests capitalising on local discontent and escalating it into general instability is real.
According to the Africom spokesperson John Manley, the US has 27 military’s bases in 15 countries/territories in East, West and North Africa. Southern Africa remains the last region where the US military does not have a physical footprint, though around 2009 the Seychelles provided facilities for America to launch Reaper drone attacks on Somalia.
In all the areas where the US military has established itself, it has entered on the premise of either “assisting” governments to quell insurgencies, or to protect international economic interest — a euphemism for American interests.
Control of the vast natural resources in Southern Africa, particularly the DRC’s untapped mineral value worth an estimated US$20 trillion and Mozambique’s recently discovered oil and gas fields, remain plum prizes.
Internal instability in the DRC — as well as on the borders with Rwanda and more recently with Zambia — mean Sadc’s largest country is a massive hotbed of unrest.
Compounding matters for the region is an insurgency in Mozambique that has been linked to Islamic State and has claimed an estimated 2 000 lives and displaced countless others.
In addition, the self-proclaimed Islamist militants say they will “open a fighting front inside South African borders” if Tshwane deploys troops to assist Maputo quell the terror threat.
In July, Mozambique National Defence and Security Council member and former Security Minister Jacinto Veloso said the insurgents, who are mainly based in Cabo Delgado, were being backed by an outside power to frustrate development of gas fields. Prior to that, Veloso had said: “I am convinced that we are facing a major operation whose objective is to block the natural gas projects of Cabo Delgado. We are confronted with a mega-operation of destabilisation very probably directed by a competent and powerful hub located somewhere outside the country.
“We are dealing with a mega-operation conceived, directed, and executed from outside the country to, at least, slow the natural gas projects, because they are considered a serious commercial threat to the giant economic interests of big companies involved in identical projects in the region which are competing for the same markets.”
Jacinto likened what was happening in Mozambique to the manner in which the US used Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan from 1979 against Russia.
President Felipe Nyusi has also said the insurgency was partly attributable to the activities of unnamed “external elites”.
After the attacks in Macomia and Mocimboa da Praia in early July, the terrorists inscribed graffiti in which they identified themselves as “Mujaahid of Mozambique”, “Islamic State” and “Al Shabab”.
Analysts noted that most of the graffiti was in English, a language that is very rarely used in Cabo Delgado.
However, opinion largely remains divided between two extremes — the insurgency being a home-grown affair caused by discontent with the government, or the insurgency being a foreignsponsored project.
Some analysts believe the truth, as if often the case, lies somewhere between the two: external interest groups taking advantage of internal dissent, meaning Southern African leaders must not only work to end the conflict, but must also do more to prevent domestic conditions from deteriorating to such exploitable levels.
And Southern African leaders are scrambling to respond to a level of threat the region has not seen before.
In May, the Chair of the Sadc Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Co-operation, President Emmerson Mnangagwa told fellow regional leaders that the situation in Mozambique was deteriorating.
“The threat is now becoming increasingly complex, blurring boundaries between political, religious and ideological extremism and crime. In addition, the modus operandi of the terrorist groups are intricate and elaborate.
“The possible impact that these developments have on the peace and security of the people of Mozambique and the entire region are indeed dire,”