Climate information and investment

AFRICA is considered among the richest continents in the world but paradoxically the greater part of its population remains poor. Its tale has been that of a rich continent with poor people.

Malnutrition, food riots and natural disasters have characterised much of Africa’s catalogue of problems adding to the general political instabilities whose source remains debatable and controversial.

The continent has a lot of mineral resources, a better human resource base and its natural climate has remained the envy of many Western countries but underneath the veneer of its beauty in terms of resources and climate, lies a serious threat of climate change that is likely going to see Africa’s efforts at industrialising suffering a stillbirth.

Most if not all African countries are still in the developing phase and the need for infrastructure development cannot be overemphasised although Africa is battling the need to find equilibrium in developing itself as well as limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

Limiting emissions entails not industrialising and not industrialising means reliance on finished products from the rich and industrialised West. It therefore remains ironic that the developing world that has emitted the most of the harmful atmospheric gases is calling for Africa not to continue to cause harm to mother earth’s climate which entails that Africa should not industrialise.

The economic and political subtotal of the climate change story when looked from an African point of view is that Africa must remain economically dependent on the rich West that has industrialised before raising a climate change red flag for Africa to stop doing the same to protect the climate.

Although the subject of climate change is fraught with politics there is a need for African governments to use information at their disposal if they are to avert any serious threats to their investments since the effects of climate change are not only social and political but stretches further to the economic front.

Climate change experts have noted recently that African governments and businesses are putting their investments at risk from the long-term impacts of climate change because they are failing to take climate information into account in investment and economic planning.

A report from the Overseas Development Institute and SouthSouthNorth for the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) programme and Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) indicates that although a lot of strides have been taken to arrest the debilitating effects of climate change socially, there is a need to look at the economic front too with a particular bias towards investment.

Much of climate change information has been focusing on arresting malnutrition, reduction of natural disasters such as floods, droughts and cyclones and food security in general with little attention paid on investment and other economic issues.

African countries are investing in infrastructure and development programmes that will last for decades — and could be deeply affected by climate change from mid-century onwards. Ports, large dams, and social infrastructure such as hospitals and schools built today could last well beyond 2050. By then, Africa’s climate could look quite different than it does now – or has in the last century.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if the world keeps emitting greenhouse gases at present rates, average temperatures across large swathes of Africa could rise by more than 4°C across by the late 21st century. Even under a low emissions scenario, average temperatures across Africa will continue to rise in the coming decades, putting greater numbers of people and assets in the path of floods, droughts and heat waves, from mid-century onwards.

It was noted therefore that governments and businesses have much to gain from using climate information in their long-term plans and investment choices. The report, Promoting the use of climate information to achieve long-term development objectives in sub- Saharan Africa is based on initial research into the use of long-term (5-40 year) climate information in Namibia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia and the coastal cities of Accra, Ghana and Maputo, Mozambique. The study also assesses how long-term climate information is being used by planners of large dams and ports in Africa.

The report finds that governments and businesses are failing to consider long-term climate information in investment planning. In most of the case study countries, not a single example of climate information being effectively taken up into long-term decision making was found. As a consequence, new infrastructure and programmes may be highly vulnerable to future climate impacts.

Lindsey Jones, a research fellow at Overseas Development Institute and author of the study, said, “Understandably, African decisionmakers are overwhelmed by a large number of immediate, shortterm development needs and this can eclipse longer-term concerns. However, even some short-term interventions today, like designing healthcare systems, could have consequences far in the future.

“Climate information — especially when it’s linked with tools for economic analysis — can guide decision-makers towards modest changes in design, to make programmes more climate resilient. Doing so requires a step change in the way we currently conduct and communicate climate science.”

“The study showed a clear gap in the information marketplace,” said Stefan Raubenheimer, Director of SouthSouthNorth who also called for a more simplified way of communication climate science for better understanding by everyone even those who are into decision making.

“Producers of climate information normally communicate in a way that is too technical and is ill-matched to decision maker’s needs — and they don’t do a good job of explaining the limits of climate information. There are too few organisations and individuals to translate climate information into a language that makes sense to decision-makers, so that they can weigh up the costs and benefits of acting on it.”

Despite these gaps, the report notes that there are big opportunities for decision-makers, scientists and intermediary organisations such as think tanks to work together more effectively to assess when climate predictions are relevant to decision-making — and what the implications are.

Better use of climate predictions in planning could boost the resilience of long-lived development programmes to Africa’s future climate.

Sam Bickersteth, CDKN’s Chief Executive, said, “The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment has indicated that climate change will have substantial impacts on Africa. With so much infrastructure yet to be built to meet African countries’ development needs, there is an opportunity to apply science more fully to the policy and planning processes. This report shows some of the constraints as well as the opportunities to communicate science to meet the particular needs of decisionmakers.”

Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) is a new 5-year international research programme jointly funded by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The Programme will support research to better understand climate variability and change across sub-Saharan Africa. The programme will focus on advancing scientific knowledge, understanding and prediction of African climate variability and change on 5–40-year timescales, together with support for better integration of science into longerterm decision-making while the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) is responsible for coordinating the FCFA scoping phase — an 18-month exercise using six case studies in sub-Saharan Africa to evaluate the needs of science users in the context of the capabilities and limitations of current science.

The general consensus from the conference has therefore been the need to simplify climate science and the call for government, businesses and planners to consider climate change whenever they are doing long-term plans.