Choosing the next African Union Commission chair

THE impending departure of Dr Nkosazana DlaminiZuma from the key continental position of chair of the African Union Commission (AUC) has generated a highly contested election campaign for a new leader. Elections were held in Rwanda in July 2016 with three contestants: Dr Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi (Foreign Minister, Botswana) — Southern Africa, Mr Agapito Mba Mokuy (Foreign Minister, Equatorial Guinea) — Central Africa and Dr Specioza Naigaga Wandira Kazibwe (Former Vice-President, Uganda) — East Africa.

They failed to sufficiently inspire Member States who questioned their calibre. None could garner two-thirds of the vote and 30 countries abstained from voting. They asked for the submission process to be reopened and for elections to be postponed. These elections will now take place during the 28th AU Summit in the last week of January 2017.

Three new candidates have joined the race: Moussa Faki Mahamat (Foreign Minister, Chad) — Central Africa; Prof Abdoulaye Bathily (UN Special Representative, Senegal) — West Africa and Ambassador Amina Mohamed (Cabinet Secretary, Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Kenya) — East Africa, while the candidate from Uganda graciously bowed out.

In an unprecedented attempt to showcase the candidates, the AU held a widely televised debate, in December 2016, in which candidates provided us insight into their analysis and policy perspectives on key continental issues.

Given questions about the experience of previous candidates, it will serve us well to reflect on the type of leader required to take this continent forward. We can then ask how far the expertise, understanding of the issues and passion of these candidates match the leadership needs of this continent. However, voting for a new leader is not based solely on the perceived experience of the candidate — national and regional interests play a significant role in the voting behaviour of Member States.

The new leader of the AUC will have to deal with both institutional and larger continental challenges. Institutionally, the need for reforming the AU has been long standing. Reforms would require creating greater financial independence and sustainability of the organisation, effectively dealing with the bureaucratic inertia, bridging old Anglo/Francophone divisions, ironing out continued tensions between regional organisations and the AU and increasing the capability for timely and appropriate responses to the growing human insecurity facing the continent.

The challenges include the youth bulge, high unemployment, low growth rates, election-related conflict, armed conflict, service-delivery protests, leaders not respecting constitutions, term limits and human rights, unequal gender relations, corruption, climate change and so forth.

Agenda 2063 is a policy framework to address these human security challenges and will require that the chair of the AUC work towards: ◆ Inclusive growth and sustainable

development; ◆ An integrated continent based on the ideals of Pan-Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance; ◆ Good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law; ◆ A peaceful and secure Africa; ◆ Shared values and ethics; ◆ People-driven development, espe

cially by women and youth; ◆ Being a global player and partner. The AU will need a leader with transformative and ethical leadership qualities to deliver on this extensive mandate. It needs a leader with the necessary analytical skills to understand and respond to the complexity, and interrelatedness, of peace, security and development.

A leader with the passion and skill to reinvigorate the ideas that informed the formation of the OAU and AU: that of unity, Pan-Africanism and regional integration. One with political acumen to navigate the power politics within the organisation and between it and the AU’s “partners” as well as to negotiate common positions and be the spokesperson for Africa in global forums. A leader who can bridge the regional and language divides, one who can rise above the factionalism and who is relatively independent from both national, regional and international (particularly ex-colonial) powers.

The need for cohesion and gender equality on the continent makes identity a salient issue in these elections.

Women campaigned for the election of Dr Dlamini-Zuma and arguably may be concerned that the window for putting forward their interests and consolidating their gains under Dlamini-Zuma’s leadership may be closing.

They would therefore be hoping for another woman and/or for someone who understands and supports the quest for gender equality and women’s meaningful participation in peace and security processes and structures to succeed her.

Youth voices are strong on the need to be included in the AU and for their concerns to be addressed.

Africa’s 200-million youth (between ages 15-24) will double by 2045. A new leader should be relatively young and be committed to articulating the concerns of the youth; a Pan-Africanist and a humanist who can provide vision and policy orientation towards a united Africa that affirms the dignity of its people and who can bridge the language, geographic and ex-colonial divides and reassert ethics and agency in Africa.

The AU is sensitive to regional representation and has an unwritten rule that the chairperson should come from one of the small states (a rule that South Africa ran roughshod over in its election bid, much to the chagrin of the other big states). Given this precedent, will the other big states now follow suit or will they seek to reinstate the unwritten rule? Southern Africa and Central Africa have been recent occupants of this position and North Africa has not fielded a candidate (hoping to retain the Peace and Security portfolios).

Who among the five candidates would best meet the requirements?

Venson-Moitoi (65) is a seasoned bureaucrat and politician. She has held the position of permanent secretary and key cabinet portfolios, including currently that of Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Her experience in national and regional governance is unquestionable, but she may lack continental and international dimensions. Her campaign focuses on gender equality and the restructuring of the AU.

She appears to be more of the same that we found in Dr Dlamini-Zuma and thus may seem to some as a candidate for continuity. For those who liked Dlamini-Zuma’s leadership, this will augur well: for those who did not, this may count against her. Many see this election as another opportunity to bring about a shake-up of the organisation — something promised, but not sufficiently delivered on, by the current chair.

Venson-Moitoi does not have a strong pan-Africanist articulation or appeal to the youth. She has the backing of Sadc, but will struggle to obtain support from the other regions who deem southern Africa to have had its opportunity as chair.

She was also not that inspiring in the televised debate. She is unlikely to gain more than the original 16 votes.

Mokuy (52) is the youngest candidate. He has held a senior position in Unesco, was a senior adviser to the president of Equatorial Guinea and is currently the Minister of Foreign Affairs, in which capacity he has hosted AU Summits for Heads of State and Government in his country. He is running a glossy media campaign that speaks to issues of youth unemployment, migration, regional integration, improving the working conditions at the AU and the need for AU’s financial independence.

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