Good prophecy, bad science: Men of God and climate predictions

Using skills passed down from old generations, grandmothers in Gutsa Village, Domboshawa look to the sky for the invasion by the birds nyenga-nyenga (swallow), to tell whether rain was on the horizon, or if its the right time to start planting.

SOME50km away at the Meteorological Services Department (Met Services) in Harare, scientists collect data and using sophisticated computer models forecast weather and climate. The two divergent systems have interacted for years, evidently with contempt and distrust for each other, all the same helping farmers plan better.

Now, there is a new boy in town

As faith in science and local knowledge tapers off, prophecy as delivered by leaders of Independent African Churches has fast emerged as a trusted tool for predicting weather and climate in rural Zimbabwe, new research finds.

Christianity is the dominant religion in Zimbabwe, with 85 percent of the 13 million population confessed Christians, according to state-run statistics agency, ZimStats. Of these, 34 percent belong to the Apostolic Sect, the largest Christian sub-group, under which the Independent African Churches fall.

The Apostolic Sect wields serious influence over its followers. For example, the Johane Marange unit discourages congregants from seeking healthcare from hospitals or clinics for religious reasons. With the exception of a handful of rebels, this is practiced to the letter.

The new research finds that over the past 7 years farming villagers in Gutsa, Domboshawa, had now been looking more to leaders of their Apostolic Churches, often called ‘prophets’, for reliably accurate forecasts on rain, and even planting.

“Reliance on prophecy . . . appears to be a strategy now being used in the village by some elderly women to mainly provide forthcoming rainy season forecasts,” says research author Dr Ignatius Gutsa of the University of Zimbabwe’s Sociology Department.

This became evident when I was chatting with one of the elderly women Mai Mizhu before the rains in October 2014. She confidently said that the Holy Spirit had said it was important to plant very early with the first rains.”

Gutsa added: “She indicated that she had confidence in their Holy Spirit’s predictions for the 2014-2015 season as she pointed out that at her Church they accept it because since 2012 they had been hearing from the Holy Spirit.

“It tells them when it will be a good season with lots of rain as it also tells them when it will be a bad season marked by lack of rain.”

Good prophecy, bad science

Understanding weather and climate predictions is key to helping rural households dependent on agriculture plan their farming activities better, moreso for women-headed families, and, as it is, at a time of climate change, say experts.

Using information from 10 women in their old age collected through interviews, focus group discussions and participant observation over a period of 19 months, Dr Gutsa allows the voices of the women in his research to speak, backgrounded by his observations. And as the voices speak they speak of their lived experiences, of how old traditional signals are losing style, and how they completely distrust information from the Met Services passed to them through various mass media channels like radio and TV.

For years, the Gutsa villagers have read various signs from nature such like bird migration, wind direction and vegetation to forecast weather, with about a 50 percent rate of success, according to the new study.

When the huge dark bird Shuramurove (Abdim Stork) appear during the rainy season, that’s a sign mubvumi (incessant rain) will soon follow, according to local tradition. Indeed, Dr Gutsa admmited to this observation as accurate, particularly for a bird whose name is as instructive Shura means harbinger, and murove moisture on the walls.

“Shuramurove becomes the harbinger of moisture or incessant rain,” he said, adding “In the 2014-2015 farming season my first sighting of the Shuramurove was on the 13th of January as mubvumbi was about to start.”

Other important indicators are read during the spring, when multiple transitions in the environment take place. During spring, the women of Gutsa would notice the pfumvudza (new soft leaves), on munhondo or musasa and “then you know that the seasons have gone and the rainy season is now near . . . it is firstly the mikute trees that will begin to show green leaves before other trees.”

On information from the Meteorological Services Department, one of the elderly women remarked: “I remember one year, these radio people are guess, guess people. There is one year when they said rain is not there, plant early your seeds. Rain was a problem when it did come, maize that was about to be harvested rotted in the fields as the rains were not stopping.”.

Whereas villagers may have combined scientific knowledge with indigenous knowledge in the past, the rise of Church prophecy as a weather and climate forecasting technique has been disruptive, the new research found.

And no more so because the villagers trust with absolute certainty that the instruction from the ‘prophets’ will come to pass. That compares to their experiences with traditional methods that are perched on the fence, with an equal chance of failure or success, and the Met Services offerings that can be trusted at own risk it says.

“The Holy Spirit had begun to prophecy precisely about what the coming rainy season would be like in 2012,” Dr Gutsa quotes one of the women in the study, Mai Mizhu.

“In that year it said the rains were not very good and that is what happened. In 2013 it had said the rains would be fairly good and that is what happened. In 2014 it had said the season would be a bad one and people needed to plant early as failure to do so would lead to hunger and this too had happened.”

In his own observation, the UZ researcher concluded: “As I kept watch over the span of the rainy season, prophecy from Mai Mizhu’s church was proved correct as the rains were very poor, this was the common consensus in the village.”

“Talking to other members of different apostolic churches in the village there seemed to be the consensus that prophecy at their churches had indicated that there would be low rainfall levels for three consecutive years starting in 2014,” he added.

Hunger and plenty

Weather and climate have a very important role in Zimbabwe, an economy based on agriculture. Realiable forecasts could mean the difference between hunger and plenty, economic growth or decline.

With some 3,7 million followers, according to calculations by The Herald Business, the size of the Apostolic Sect Christian subgroup is very important.

It exemplifies the number of people who find prophecy in climate and weather not as only true, but something that can be completely depended on to influence decisions on farming. As climate changes, Dr Gutsa said prophecy was an emerging phenomenon to be watched.

“Increasingly elderly women are calling upon a new weather and rainy season forecast phenomenon in the form of prophecy from Independent African Churches in the village,” he said.

His research is titled: “Everyday Local Level Sources of Weather Forecasting in Rural Zimbabwe in the Face of Climate Change”. God is faithful.