GDP growth slowing across the globe

Over the course of 2017, one of the primary factors fuelling investor optimism was the fact that, for the first time ever, global stocks rose in basically uninterrupted fashion, a sign of synchronised global growth that boded well for future prospects.

NOW that narrative is showing signs of unravelling, and while the US is seen as something of a haven, weakening trends abroad could pose another risk to Wall Street, which is already grappling with the geopolitical concern of trade uncertainty.

“We’re starting to see the end of the synchronised global growth that has prevailed over the last two years,” wrote Sara Potter, an associate director at FactSet who analyses global markets.

“While the US economy remains strong, growth in Europe and Japan is moderating, and emerging markets are under increasing economic and financial market pressure.”

According to FactSet, which cited data from the International Monetary Fund, global GDP is expected to grow 3,9 percent in 2018 and hold at that level next year.

The US is expected to grow 2,9 percent in 2018, an acceleration from the 2,2 percent expansion in 2017, and then cool slightly to 2,7 percent in 2019.

FactSet’s own expectation, based on the mean estimate of analysts it polled, is that the US will grow 2,8 percent in 2018 and then slow to 2,4 percent in 2019.

As demonstrated by the chart below, many major forecasting firms see 2018 as a near-term peak for growth rates.

Potter wrote that the slowing growth was “likely in response to the accelerated pace of interest rates by the Federal Reserve.”

A moderation of growth does not mean contraction, and it doesn’t mean that a recession is imminent. However, slowing growth — both in the u.s and abroad — would likely be another headwind for an equity market that is trading near record levels.

“Things are looking good in the US in terms of earnings and data, but things aren’t as rosy if you look to China, emerging markets or Europe.

“Weakness in those regions could eventually become a headwind for the US,” said Suzanne Hutchins, senior portfolio manager of the $1,5 billion Dreyfus Global Real Return Fund, which is run out of the investment boutique Newton.

“The US market seems to be shrugging off any sort of risk right now, since the S&P 500 is near a record and volatility is low. We think that’s wrong, as trade would become quite challenging for the global economy,” she said.

The US isn’t the only place where growth is expected to slow next year. In the eurozone, FactSet expects growth of 2,2 percent this year, which will then slow to 1,9 percent in 2019.

This trend holds across major European countries, including Germany (where growth is seen going from 2,5 percent this year to 2,2 percent next year), France (from 2,1 percent in 2018 to 1,8 percent in 2019) and Italy (1,5 percent to 1,2 percent ).

Growth in the UK is expected to go from 1,6 percent this year to 1,4 percent in 2019.

“Uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union is hurting business confidence and the weak pound has boosted inflation and suppressed private consumption,” FactSet’s Potter wrote.

China is also expected to see moderately slowing growth. After expansion of 6,6 percent this year, it is expected to grow its economy by 6,3 percent next year.

Even these moderated growth rates could be at risk of slowing further if trade tensions worsen between the US and its major trading partners.

UBS calculated that if the trade issue were to simply escalate from current levels, US economic growth would be 1 percent lower, while global growth falls 42 basis points (0,42 percentage point).

In the more severe possibility of a trade war, on the other hand, 245 basis points is expected to be cut from US growth, while global growth would be expected to be 108 basis points lower.

“The key things to watch over the next few quarters will be the impact of rising trade tensions, global inflation trends, and the pace of central bank monetary policy changes,” FactSet’s Potter wrote.

“All of these factors are likely to determine the path of global economic growth over the next few quarters and years.” — Market Watch.