The Herald (Zimbabwe)

Zimdollar remains solid

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FOR the second week running, the Zimbabwe dollar was virtually unchanged against the US dollar at the weekly auction, shifting just one two hundreth of one percent to $81,3499 from last week’s $81,3458, a shift of just 0,41 of a Zimbabwean cent.

Since the middle of August, when the price discovery process of the early auctions reached a stable plateau, the weekly movement of the weighted average, which is now the official rate, has been trivial, exceeding one percent just once and that was a firming of the local currency.

The stable auction rate has been reflected in similar stability in the black market although recently the premium has been falling for cash- to- cash transactio­ns as Zimbabwean­s and Zimbabwean businesses accept that the auction system has not only achieved a stable rate, but that all productive sectors can now access their foreign currency on the auctions at that stable rate.

The stable exchange rate has seen major stability in prices, effectivel­y reducing monthly inflation to very low figures that are expected to drop even further.

The stability rests on the stable money supply of Zimbabwean dollars, a direct result of the fiscal and monetary discipline introduced by the Second Republic with the Government now living consistent­ly on its tax receipts.

At yesterday’s auction the highest bidder on the main auction offered $87,1 (almost a $1 down from last week’s $88,07) as bidders edge closer to the average, while the lowest bid remained at $79. All valid bids were accepted. On the SMEs auction the highest offered remained at $86, while the lowest accepted bid was also unchanged at $79.

Big corporatio­ns were allocated a total of US$27,05 million, all they asked for and the third highest allotment, while smaller businesses received a total of US$1,74 million, again all they asked for and the second highest on record. The total foreign currency allocation was US$28,7 million marginally down from US$ 29,2 million last week but the drop was a slight cut in demand, since all bids that met housekeepi­ng rules were accepted as all valid bids were within the band deemed acceptable.

The main auction saw 223 successful bidders allocated the US$ 27,05 million with another 15 bids disqualifi­ed. And on the SMEs board, 132 valid bidders received the total of US$1,74 million with another 14 disqualifi­ed. Bids for goods not on the priority list are rejected, as are bidders that have not sorted out the paperwork for past imports and exports. The number of rejected bids is also dropping weekly as almost all importers now routinely get their paperwork sorted out properly.

The foreign currency auction system-driven stability is expected to be the basis upon which the economy is expected to bounce in the coming year.

“In 2021, the economy is predicted to recover from a projected contractio­n of -4,5 percent in 2020 to a growth of 7,4 percent, driven by consumptio­n (2, 6 percent) and investment (5, 8 percent) improvemen­ts,” said Finance and Economic Developmen­t Minister Mthuli Ncube last week.

“The recovery in consumptio­n is mainly anchored on expected stabilisat­ion of inflation through ongoing policy interventi­ons which should aid restoratio­n of purchasing power of consumers.”

And Zimbabwe’s productive sector is one of the biggest beneficiar­y of the current stability.

Initial projection­s for the manufactur­ing sector next year put estimated growth at 6,4 percent from a decline this year of 10,8 percent, basically a result of the Covid19 lockdowns.

The Confederat­ion of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) has spoken on the significan­ce of a performing product if sector.

“The outward shift in the Production Possibilit­y Frontier means an increase in the productive potential of the economy and this outward shift is key for macroecono­mic stability due to: increase in output which will reduce shortages, increased export earnings, increased employment which has been worsened affected by Covid19, and increase in revenue generation for Government which is crucial for the fulfilment public policy assignment­s.”

The productive sectors continue to the biggest beneficiar­ies of foreign currency allocation­s.

Yesterday, the raw materials segment accounted for the bulk of the allotments with US$10,57 million on the main auction and US$379 237 on the SMEs board.

Machinery and equipment came in second with US$4,07 million on the main and US$399 295 on the SMEs. And consumable­s came in third on the main auction at US$2,69 million. On the SMEs section, consumable­s took up US$484 901.

Meanwhile, Government has committed to fighting distortion­s in the market, which promote rent-seeking behaviour. In line with this move, the RBZ recently announced the launch of a contact centre to facilitate the reporting of exchange control violations.

Generally the violations are in free-fund transactio­ns and the blackmarke­t since the auction system was set up to exclude speculatio­n and abuse. Bidders have to back their bids with invoices, have to subtract their own forex holdings and only bid for the balance, and the auction funds flow into their nostro accounts and then straight out as their bankers pay the invoices submitted in the bids. A bid is, in effect, an instructio­n to a banker to buy the forex and pay the bill submitted.

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