Let’s tighten up to avert fifth wave

WITH the rapid rise in South Africa of new Covid-19 infections over the last four to five weeks, with the average number of new cases now over 7 000 a day and a fifth wave now declared, Zimbabweans need to become more serious in their precautions.

Our health authorities have moved into high alert, since we now know to our cost that South Africa tends to lead the region in waves of infection.

The mutation of two new sub-variants of the old enemy, the Omicron variant that caused the fourth wave, BA.4 and BA.5 are now driving the South African fifth wave.

But as the national Covid-19 response co-ordinator, Dr Agnes Mahomva stresses, Zimbabwe does not just have to sit back and take it. While we are getting some breakers from the South African wave already, and will probably get more, the level of any fifth wave in Zimbabwe will largely depend on what we as individuals do.

Dr Mahomva repeats the continual expert advice which everyone from President Mnangagwa keeps emphasising and Government leaders follow themselves.

We need to all be vaccinated and we need to all follow the standard rules of masking in public and maintaining social distancing, while following decent hygiene. It is that simple and easy.

Vaccination is far from foolproof, but it definitely reduces significantly the risk of infection and if we are unfortunate to get infected when fully vaccinated it almost always means the symptoms are a lot less severe and dangerous.

All that a Zimbabwean has to do to be vaccinated for free is to go to the nearest public health centre, a clinic or hospital. Those who prefer the private practitioners can be vaccinated with a free vaccine for a small administrative charge. It is that simple and easy.

The benefits of vaccination are so great that Dr Mahomva made a special appeal for the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions to get their jabs since these groups are the ones most likely to become very ill or even die if infected.

Reducing infection risks and having more mild symptoms if caught are very important for those groups. Families need to make arrangements if necessary.

The Government has done its part, ensuring that all public health facilities have vaccines and are ready for those coming, and has sent teams out.

The biggest block of teams were in the two-pronged blitz at all schools once those aged 12 and over were cleared for the vaccine Zimbabwe uses. Most in this age group had their first jab in the few weeks before the school holidays and now are getting their second jab as they are back in class.

But fairly obviously, the Ministry of Health and Child Care has also decided to do something drastic in Chitungwiza, which was the worst large centre on the list.

In the past few days that town now has rocketed to 50,6 percent of its 12s and over with their first jab, and has pushed Harare on 46,8 percent to the bottom of the heap.

Chitungwiza is still below the national average of 54,6 percent, but the improvement has been breathtaking, signifying that someone in the Ministry finally found the magic formula since the improvement cannot just be the schoolchildren.

Whatever the formula was it now needs to be repeated in Harare.

But vaccination is not enough, especially in places like Harare that are below the national average and where doubts among the unvaccinated still appear to linger, since Harare residents have the greatest access in the country to both public and private vaccination centres.

This is why we need to all take seriously the other wing of the prevention measures, wear our masks in public, social distance and wash or sanitise.

And masks need to be worn on the face, not warming the neck or leaving the nose exposed as so many do. Masking is especially important when avoiding strangers is impossible, like in a bus. And we need to remember that now that winter has arrived more windows are closed, so the need for maximum protection is even more critical.

Dr Mahomva and her fellow Zimbabwean experts may well have to press for more enforcement of the masking and distancing rules as winter bites and the South African pool of infection grows. But hopefully Zimbabweans are smart and will follow the advice.

There has been a modest increase in infection rates over the past couple of weeks and by Monday the average had reached 128 a day, still low but almost four times what we were seeing a month ago.

As Dr Mahomva noted, some of this reported rise is because schools are back and schools take checking very seriously. Children come from families in the big wide world and if their family has an infected person, even if the symptoms are so mild that the person does not go to a clinic, the child is at risk.

Meanwhile, the second jab blitz is going well with 39 percent of the 12s and over now fully vaccinated and that figure rising by tens of thousands every day as the more than one million who had their first jab in the April blitz are lined up for the repeat.

The combination of basic precautions and vaccination has been working, especially as no politician is trying to make capital out of the double programme, and most religious leaders, especially those heading the largest church organisations, have encouraged their followers to get their jabs.

The problems that can arise are seen in America where more than one million have now died.

Zimbabwe has 5 484 deaths and if America has followed the lead of a fairly poor and remote third world country its death toll would have been around 120 000, instead of eight times worse. Sometimes the third world gets it right.

The American problem is highlighted by the fact that strongly Republican counties have death tolls almost three times as high as strongly Democrat counties, so politicised has vaccination masking become in that unfortunate land.

But some of the political and religious false information in other countries does appear on social media in Zimbabwe, and we also have our own kooks, along with a strong religious community that rejects all medical attention.

Since one major centre of the largest of these religious groups is in Chitungwiza the recent dramatic success in that town needs to be followed up in other areas.

Basically, Zimbabwe has coped with Covid-19 remarkably well, thanks to a Government willing to take professional medical advice and a population ready to follow that advice, or at least a majority of the population.

What we basically need to do to avoid a full-blown fifth wave is to be just more diligent in doing what most of us have been doing and continue taking Covid-19 and expert advice very seriously.