76pc of Africa’s energy could come from renewable sources by 2040

OVER half of Africa’s people — about 600 million — lack access to even the bare minimum of electricity. The tough question to answer is how access can be extended without adding to global warming by relying on fossil fuels.

We — a team from Rwanda and Germany who work in the field of renewable energy scientific modelling — set out to find the answer by building the Renewable Power Plant Database Africa, the first on the continent.

It is a database of available open access data on hydro, wind and solar energy sources that we have analysed.

The database shows that some countries, such as Nigeria and Zimbabwe, have enough projects in the pipeline to potentially transition away from fossil fuels by 2050.

It also shows that 76 percent of all electricity required on the continent could come from renewable resources by 2040.

This would happen if the capacity of existing hydro, solar and wind power plants were fully utilised and if all plants currently on the drawing board were built. The 76 percent from renewables would be met by 82 percent hydropower, 11 percent solar power and 7 percent wind power.

Hydropower has been the main renewable energy resource to date, but declining costs for solar photovoltaics (90 percent decline since 2009) and wind turbines (55-60 percent decline since 2010) mean solar and wind have potential to lead sustainable renewable energy options.

We conclude that combining the advantages of hydropower with wind and solar energy would be a more sustainable alternative to hydropower alone.

And that hybrid solution would be the best option. But none of this can happen unless countries are willing to get into transnational electricity sharing arrangements.

In addition, providing openly accessible and location-specific data is fundamental for the development of an integrated sustainable renewable energy mix.

What the data says

We compiled the publicly available records of 1 074 hydropower, 1 128 solar and 276 wind power plants into one database.

These were both existing and planned plants. We included the location of each proposed plant for all African countries.

We then integrated the data into a harmonised and updated database.

This is the first comprehensive overview of renewable energy plants in Africa that includes their geographic coordinates, construction status and capacity (in megawatts).

This database shows that some countries have enough projects in the pipeline to potentially transition away from fossil fuels.

Hydropower is used by Eswatini, Angola, Djibouti, Gambia, Cameroon, Tanzania, Lesotho

The Aswan High Dam in Egypt is among the largest hydropower projects in the world

and the Democratic Republic of Congo as a major or main source of renewable electricity.

Other countries, including Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, Libya, Cape Verde, Morocco and Tunisia, are lagging behind in renewable energy development.

These countries are highly electrified and their economies depend strongly on fossil fuels.

We found that hydropower could more than double to 132GW. This would happen if those plants that have already had feasibility studies carried out were built. The Aswan High Dam has an installed capacity of 2,1GW and generates most of Egypt’s energy. So, 132GW would be enough to provide power for several countries.

However, hybrid solutions are more likely to provide reliable electricity to a growing population in a changing climate.

The cost of wind and solar power is dropping, while a recent analysis concluded that barely any hydropower will be profitable after 2030.

If hydropower is not a favourable option under future climate change scenarios, wind and solar will be able to step in.

Hybrid power plants that generate a combination of renewable energy are another option.

A promising example of this is the installation of floating solar panels on existing reservoirs.

Share electricity, data and experience across borders

To meet the demand across Africa, we recommend the following:

◆ Firstly, that there is international electricity

sharing between African countries. This is the only way to ensure a renewable electricity supply to all countries.

◆ Secondly, African leaders must also move away from economic-driven development and integrate the different interests from people involved or affected, such as local residents, the general population, and governmental and non-governmental organisations.

◆ Thirdly, renewable energy development

Christiane Zarfl is a professor for Environmental Systems Analysis, Faculty of Science, University of Tübingen. Rebecca Peters is a PhD candidate in Environmental Systems Analysis, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Tübingen.