MATHEMATICIANS FORMULATE SURGE PERIODS

Two mathematicians from the University of Sydney have developed a framework to determine when regions enter and exit COVID-19 infection surge periods, providing a useful tool for public health policymakers. Mathematicians Nick James and Max Menzies have published an analysis of COVID-19 infection rates in US states to identify turning points in data that indicate when surges have started or ended. “In some of the worst performing states, it seems that policymakers have looked for plateauing or slightly declining infection rates. Instead, health officials should look for identifiable local maxima and minima, showing when surges reach their peak and when they are demonstrably over,” says James. In the study, the two mathematicians report a method to analyse COVID-19 case numbers for evidence of a first or second wave. The two mathematicians have also applied the method to analyse infection rates in eight Australian states and territories using data. Menzies says their analysis shows governments should try not to allow new cases to increase, nor reduce restrictions when case numbers have merely flattened. “A true turning point, where new cases are legitimately in downturn and not just exhibiting stable fluctuations, should be observed before relaxing any restrictions.”