Polls without opposition unity would be lopsided
The Trinamool decision to fight Lok Sabha elections solo in West Bengal reflects disunity within the INDIA bloc. For a credible fight against the BJP, the opposition must try harder
The INDIA grouping took a fresh blow over the weekend as West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) left the Congress party in the cold on pre-poll seat sharing, announcing its own candidates for all 42 seats up for contest in the state in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. This amounts to fresh evidence of deep internal differences within the group that have all along clouded its prospects of putting up a credible joint front against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which rules the country at the Centre. Earlier, the opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had said it would go solo in Punjab, although it did strike a seat-sharing pact with the Congress in Delhi. Its differing positions are perhaps explained by its strength in the two states. Having won eight of Punjab’s 13 parliamentary seats in 2019, AAP sees itself as the dominant player there, and hence does not want to cede space. In Delhi, however, despite AAP’s overwhelming majority in the state assembly, its seven Lok Sabha seats were swept entirely by the BJP five years ago. So, a coordinated fight by AAP and Congress makes more sense in the national capital. That said, such divisions within the INDIA bloc make for bad optics. Politics, after all, is about perceptions. And with the opposition group’s members pulling in different directions, the BJP has taken a clear lead as far as pre-poll arrangements go—even though it expects to win power once again on its own.
Over the weekend, the BJP brought the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of Andhra Pradesh back into the fold of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which it leads. How the two parties split the 25 seats in this southern state is yet to be worked out, but these details look like just a formality. Although the TDP was washed out in 2019, allying with it may be the BJP’s best bet to get a foothold in the state. That is important if India’s ruling party is to make inroads in the south beyond Karnataka. In fact, south-ward expansion is implicit in the party’s target of 370 seats (plus another 30 won by allies) set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP has more or less maximized its potential in the Hindi-speaking belt of northern and central states. While its chances in Bihar had seemed a bit precarious some months ago, the party has managed to swing the Janata DalUnited (JD-U) back into the NDA without alienating another ally, the Lok Janshakti Party, which had a public spat with the JD-U. As for Karnataka, the only southern state with a BJP presence, Modi’s party has got an alliance stitched up with the Janata Dal (Secular). In Tamil Nadu, it would be hoping to make its debut as a seat winner through the efforts of K. Annamalai, the party’s young face who faces a steep challenge in the local heft of Dravidian parties that profess an ideology at odds with the BJP’s. While the BJP’s vote share in Tamil Nadu could rise, whether it translates into seats is another matter.
The Mamata Banerjee-led TMC’s snub to the Congress has assumed high news salience because it’s a party that emerged ahead of the BJP five years ago in what was largely seen as a head-to-head contest in West Bengal. Today, the TMC seems keener to defend its home turf than aid an effort to unseat the BJP nationally. Perhaps it is being realistic, given the ease with which Modi’s party is tipped to win a Lok Sabha majority. But it also diminishes the chances of a real battle for power at the Centre. And that’s an ominous sign for the opposition overall.