Key players in an £82bn industry

Honda

Honda’s future in the UK was looking gloomy way before Brexit. It mothballed one half of its Swindon plant after sales failed to recover following the 2008 financial crisis, and then decided to produce just the Civic hatchback, dumping the Jazz and CR-V. But the new Civic is now also exported to the US for the first time, and production numbers rose 24% last year. It still makes a diesel in the attached engine plant but has been able to swing production more towards petrol. Swindon’s future probably hinges more on whether President Trump’s threatened tariffs come to pass. That plus a hard Brexit could sink its UK manufacturing. “We struggle to see a bright future for Honda in Europe,” auto analyst Max Warburton wrote for Bernstein Research earlier this year.

Nissan

The UK’S single largest car factory, Nissan in Sunderland, is regarded as a bellwether for Brexit because of its size – nearly half a million vehicles were built there last year, of which 80% are exported. In April, Reuters reported Sunderland would shed “hundreds” of jobs after demand slumped. Nissan’s UK sales were down 30% in the first half of this year, but that’s mostly due to ageing product. Expect production numbers to climb again after the Juke and Qashqai are replaced and it gains the X-trail SUV. No start dates for those cars have been given.

Vauxhall

Luton and Ellesmere Port looked vulnerable to closure after the brand’s sale to cost-cutting PSA coincided with Brexit uncertainty. However, PSA came to Luton’s rescue with news that the factory would make a new range of vans on PSA platforms. PSA boss Carlos Tavares said no decision would be made on Ellesmere Port until 2020, closer to the time when the current Astra is replaced. A third of its workforce was cut at the beginning of this year in an attempt to increase its cost-competitiveness. If that works and we have a deal on Brexit that mirrors current benefits, it could yet survive.

Ford

The union Unite gave an indication of the paranoia among manufacturing workers in the UK over the upheaval surrounding diesel engines when it called for Ford’s two vast engine plants, the petrol-focused Bridgend and diesel-making Dagenham, to switch to making electric drivetrains instead. Ford is too pragmatic for that, but its big problem is losing JLR as a client for the V6 petrol and V8 in Bridgend, and the V6 diesel in Dagenham by 2020. The V6 diesel has a new life in the F-150 pick-up in the US, but production at Bridgend will fall by some 150,000 engines. A new range of 1.5-litre engines in both plants will give them a boost, but most head to Ford’s assembly plants in Europe so any Brexit-derived disruption will hurt.

BMW

BMW is unlikely to leave Mini’s ancestral home in Cowley (it’s due to add the electric Mini from next year) but has other options in the case of a hard Brexit. The firm has been ramping up Mini production at its Dutch contract manufacturing plant to 170,000 in 2017 and has increased head count there, Reuters reported in June. The company has been vocal on the threats of Brexit, particularly in terms of customs hold-ups, but its engine plant at Hams Hall is well positioned to ride out the diesel slump: it doesn’t make any.

Toyota

“Let’s be clear, Toyota, Nissan and Honda came here to access the European single market, which is why they’ve got a particular problem with Brexit,” says Aston University’s Professor Bailey. Toyota’s 2500 employees in Derbyshire breathed a sigh of relief when the firm announced the next Auris for the plant starting early next year. It should boost production after a lean couple of years, but the Avensis has now gone and won’t be replaced. Toyota’s engine plant in Deeside in North Wales, meanwhile, has thrived thanks to the interest in Toyota hybrids amid the diesel slump.

Jaguar Land Rover

Britain’s biggest auto maker made just over half a million cars in the UK last year, but 2018 has brought problems. First it said it was cutting production at Halewood, then in April it announced the loss of up 1000 agency jobs at its biggest plant in Solihull. To make up the shortfall, JLR shifted over 362 full-time staff from Castle Bromwich, where it builds Jaguars suffering some of the biggest sales declines this year. JLR has blamed the diesel slump and model cycles, but its global strategy is also a cause. Production is growing in China and it’s just about to start production of the Discovery in Slovakia. After being saved from closure when Tata took over JLR in 2008, Castle Bromwich now looks vulnerable.

The luxury brands

Bentley, Rolls-royce, Aston Martin and Mclaren might grumble about Brexit, but they have no real choice but to ride it out – too much of their global brand allure is tied up in the ‘Made in Britain’ promise. To Mclaren’s Mike Flewitt, it’s just another challenge to negotiate: “In one market, Singapore, I have a 180% tariff. We’re talking maybe WTO tariffs at 10%,” he said. “I’m not even convinced there will be tariffs.”

Tariffs are fourth on the list of Brexit fears for Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer. “That’s least of my concerns,” he says. Number one for him is border drag, two is rules of origin and three is hiring the right people. “We’re employing people from the likes of Ferrari, and I need to be able to say to them they’re going to be able to stay after Brexit,” he said.