Reading the market: Anson’s price analysis and predictions
We are now almost two years on from en primeur, but the physical release of the bottles has not impacted 2018 prices as much as might have been hoped. Initial release prices were, in most cases, higher than 2017 – Liv-ex records the average price rise in the UK as being 17.9% higher than 2017, with European prices seen at almost exactly the same level as 2016 in many cases.
Only a few 2018 prices have since moved upwards – with the biggest mover, according to Liv-ex, being Lafite-Rothschild, rising 16% since release to just under £7,000 on the UK market, no doubt helped by the special label that celebrates the 150th anniversary since the property was bought by Baron James de Rothschild in 1868.
Liv-ex also records Calon-Ségur 2018 as moving up 3.4% (now at just under £800), and Vieux Château Certan up 2.7% (at £ 2,700). The Liv-ex charts show both Beychevelle and Pontet- Canet unchanged, and drops for, among others, Smith Haut Lafitte, Mouton and Grand-Puy-Lacoste.
From my 2018 tastings here, Mouton should be able to recoup that loss over the long term, as it is a wine that more than delivers on the promise of long ageing and quality – even though its 2019 was priced so well (see below) that it is bound to impact the desirability of the 2018 for at least the next few years.
Bear in mind also that the value of the pound has dropped from its levels of early 2020, impacting relative affordability.
The majority of 2018 labels have stayed at or around their release price. They have not been helped by the fact that the 2019 vintage is a little more consistent, and has been priced more attractively due to the pressures of the market at the time of their release (seeing average prices 19% lower than 2018, with a few headline exceptions such as Mouton Rothschild and Pontet-Canet that released a full 30% below their 2018 prices). The market expects the
2018s to hold their value, but there is no expectation that they are going to fire up anytime soon.
Prices going forward will also depend on the release prices of the 2020 vintage. If the market has not recovered by then – and it seems unlikely to have done so – then 2018s might start to look expensive in comparison to these two competitively priced vintages.